130 Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features

Monday, 23 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

Traditionally, spatial forecast verification has been performed in an Eulerian sense, as features move through a fixed geographical region, which helps to identify errors in the forecast for specific geographic areas. However, forecasters and NWP model developers may both gain valuable insight by knowing the spatial error patterns relative to  specific weather feature,s such as convective systems. In this work, forecasts taken from recent MPEX and VORTEX-SE data assimilation experiments will be analyzed to determine the forecast errors relative to convective weather systems. This approach will attempt to measure the performance of convective mode/morphology predictions using feature-relative grids which follow specific convective systems. Error fields of environmental conditions surrounding convective systems can be produced and tested for statistical significance. Preliminary results from this ongoing work will be presented at the conference.
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