Poster Session 1 WAF/NWP Posters: Weather Phenomena, Observations, and Forecasting

Monday, 23 January 2017: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE and Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, San Diego, CA

Posters on the topics of: Winter Weather, Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms, and Other Weather Phenomena, Forecasting Techniques (Aviation, Fire Weather, and Hydrological), Recent Field Campaigns, and Other Contributions

Papers:
82
The Relationship Between the Structure of Low-Level Jets and Precipitation Extremes
Derek Hodges, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

83
Synthetic Application of Multiple Intensified Observation in the Analysis of Nonlinear Mesoscale Convection System
Xiaofang Wang, CMA, Wuhan, China

84
Use of Operational Data to Reveal the Morphology and Environmental Properties of Warm-Season Mesoscale Convective Systems in Japan
Tetsuya Takemi, Kyoto University, Uji, Japan; and T. Unuma

Handout (1.2 MB)

85
A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe Weather/Flash Flood Events
Kyle J. Pallozzi, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and S. J. Weiss

86
Critical Forecast Elements for Recent Southeast Texas Flood Events
Lance Wood, NOAA, Dickinson, TX; and D. Reilly

Poster 87 will now be presented as 9B.5A

88
Comparing Tornado and False Alarm Events in the Rapid City Forecast Area
Matthew B. Wilson, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and M. J. Bunkers

89
The Effect of Elevated Thunderstorms on Mesoscale/Synoptic Scale Boundaries
Joshua S. Kastman, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

90
Dynamic Ensemble Model Evaluation of Elevated Thunderstorms sampled by PRECIP via MET and MODE
Joshua S. Kastman, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market

Poster 91 will now be presented as 9B.6A

92
EPEC: A Tool for Anticipating Excessive Precipitation with Elevated Thunderstorms
Alzina Foscato, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market and N. I. Fox

93
Downdraft Convective Inhibition as a Means to Discriminate Elevated Convection
Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. Rochette, J. Shewchuk, N. I. Fox, R. J. Difani, J. S. Kastman, and C. B. Henson

94
A Comparison of the Life Cycles of Elevated and Surface-Based Convection
Katharine Wunsch, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market

95
Distinguishing Elevated from Surface-Based Convection Using Convergence Columns Identified from Dual-Polarization Doppler Radar Data
Ryan J. Difani, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and P. S. Market

96
Factors that Influence the Growth of Supercells into MCSs after Sunset
Keenan C. Eure, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. M. Peters and R. S. Schumacher

97
The Role of the Nocturnal Low-Level Jet in Convection Initiation over Eastern Kansas on 2 June 2015
Joshua G. Gebauer, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, E. Fedorovich, and P. Klein

98
A Simple Method of Depicting Advections as Vectors with Applications to Frontal Diagnosis
David A Barber, NWS, Anchorage, AK

99
A Reflectivity Climatology Study of the Contiguous United States Using the Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS)
Brandon R. Smith, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, A. E. Reinhart, M. C. Mahalik, and T. M. Smith

100
The Minimum Horizontal Length Scale When Evaluating Quasi-Geostrophic Omega
J. Michael Battalio, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. L. Dyer

101
Comparison of ERA-Interim, CFSR, MERRA-2 and JRA-55 Reanalyses with Observed Temperatures, Wind Speeds and Precipitation over British Columbia, Canada
Pedro I. Odon, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and G. L. West and R. B. Stull

102
A Preliminary Survey of Forecaster Decision Making in the Blended Model Era
Matthew Day, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and T. Lindley

103
Forecasting California Precipitation Using a Cointegrated Relationship with the North Pacific High Sea Level Pressure Anomaly
John S. Rath, Tetra Tech, Inc., Lafayette, CA; and M. Costa-Cabral and S. B. Roy

104
Investigating Orographic-Modification of Precipitation in Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest Using Water Stable Isotopes
Eric P. Kelsey, Plymouth State Univ., Plymouth, NH; and M. D. Cann

105
Developing the National Blend of Models for National Weather Service Operations
David P. Ruth, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. T. Myrick and M. Peroutka

Handout (1.2 MB)

106
Assessment of Post-Processing Methods for Daily High and Low Temperature Prediction
Maxwell A Gawryla, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and J. K. Williams, P. P. Neilley, J. P. Koval, and S. Marshall

107
Mesoscale Forcing of Lake-Effect Precipitation over Lake Ontario during OWLeS IOP2b
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell

108
An Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts during the Olympex field Campaign of 2015-16
Robert Conrick, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

109
Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Precipitation Processes in Complex Terrain during OLYMPEX
Angela K. Rowe, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr., H. C. Barnes, and M. M. Chaplin

Handout (33.3 MB)

110
Evaluation of satellite based rain rate retrieval during OLYMPEX
Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Dolan and W. Xu

111
Precipitation and Propagation Characteristics of Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainbands during the OLYMPEX Field Campaign
Deanna A. Hence, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Hunzinger

112
Utilizing Hazard Services Concepts for Product Creation at the Aviation Weather Testbed
Austin Cross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO; and B. R. J. Schwedler, N. Hardin, and T. L. Hansen

Handout (18.4 MB)

113
Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products in the Chehalis River Basin during Winter 2015-2016 Using OLYMPEX Data
Qian Cao, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and D. R. Gergel, A. Mehran, B. Nijssen, W. A. Petersen, and D. P. Lettenmaier

114
Quantifying the 2015 Glacier Decline in Olympic National Park, Washington, USA
Justin M. Pflug, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and W. R. Currier, D. E. Shean, W. Baccus, J. Riedel, M. Larrabee, and J. D. Lundquist

115
Observations of the Vertical Variability of Raindrop Size Distributions during OLYMPE

116
Remote Sensing of Microphysical Processes during OLYMPEX

117
Synoptic and Orographic Control of Observed Drop Size Distribution Regimes during the OLYMPEX Field Campaign
Joseph Zagrodnik, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. A. McMurdie and R. A. Houze Jr.

Handout (23.2 MB)

118
Understanding Atypical Mid-Level Wind Speed Maxima in Hurricane Eyewalls
Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle, G. H. Bryan, and J. D. Kepert

119
Connections between Outflow, Intensity, and Inertial Stability in Hurricane Joaquin (2015)
Audrey J. Channell, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and M. Hanson, E. R. Sanabia, and B. S. Barrett

120
Interaction between Hurricane Joaquin and the Large-Scale Environment based on an Eddy Kinetic Energy Budget
Zachary Q. Barthelmes, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and E. C. Field and E. R. Sanabia

121
Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment: High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. R. Moskaitis, R. Ferek, and J. Feldmeier

Handout (15.2 MB)

122
Evaluating WRF Simulations of Planetary Boundary Layer Processes during the Baltimore–Washington, DC DISCOVER-AQ Field Campaign
Jennifer Hegarty, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. Henderson, J. Lewis Jr., E. McGrath-Spangler, A. J. Scarino, R. Adams-Selin, R. Ferrare, E. J. Welton, and P. L. DeCola

Handout (4.6 MB)

123
Analysis of Warm Season Low-Level Jets Along the Southern New England Coast Using IMPOWR Field Data
Keenan Fryer, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Handout (5.0 MB)

124
Differences by PBL Scheme in WRF Forecasts of the Nocturnal Boundary-Layer and Associated LLJ based on a Study of Select PECAN Cases
David E. Jahn, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

125
Verification of Near-Storm Environment Forecasts Using MPEX Upsonde Observations
Christopher A. Kerr, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and X. Wang

126
Impacts of UAS Data on Thunderstorm Forecasts during PRECIP
George Limpert, Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

127
Severe Wind Damage Associated with Winter Convection in Southern California
Stefanie N Sullivan, NWS, San Diego, CA

129
Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snowfall Events in Indiana: What's the Best Recipe?
Craig A. Clark, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and K. H. Goebbert

An Analysis of a Mesoscale Features during IOP 4C of the VORTEX-SE Field Campaign

130
Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features
Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and L. C. Dawson

131
Investigating the Synpotic and Mesoscale Features in Six Selected Heavy Snow Events-Jet Streak Circulations and Latent, Sensible Heat Fluxes
Ralph Johnson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO
Manuscript (9.5 MB)

Poster 132 will now be presented as 584A

133
Observed Characteristics of Mesoscale Banding in Coastal Northeast U.S. Snow Storms
Nicole P. Hoban, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Yuter, L. Tomkins, S. A. Ganetis, M. A. Miller, L. Lovell, S. R. Rhodes, E. Scott, and B. A. Colle

Handout (1.9 MB)

134
Riming Parameterization Impacts on the Microphysical Evolution of a Northeast Winter Cyclone and the Associated Snowbands
Steven Michael Naegele, Pennsylvania State University/Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, University Park, PA; and T. Eidhammer, G. Thompson, M. R. Kumjian, and D. J. Stensrud

135
Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of an Ice Fog Event to PBL and Surface Layer Parameterization Schemes with WRF model
Feimin Zhang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT ; and Z. Pu

136
Mechanisms Contributing to the Tug Hill Lake-Effect Precipitation Maximum during OWLeS IOP2b
Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

137
Lake-Effect Mode and Precipitation Enhancement over the Tug Hill Plateau during OWLeS IOP2b
Leah Campbell, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh, P. G. Veals, T. W. Letcher, and J. R. Minder

138
Environmental Conditions Associated With Different Snow Band Structures within Northeast U.S. Winter Storms
Sara A. Ganetis, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, N. P. Hoban, and S. E. Yuter

Handout (6.1 MB)

139
Investigation of Multi-bands in the Comma Head of the 26-27 December 2010 Northeast U.S. Winter Storm
Sara A. Ganetis, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, N. P. Hoban, and S. E. Yuter

Handout (3.5 MB)

140
A Climatology of Snow Squalls in New England
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and D. W. Coe

141
Influence of Multi-lake Connection on Lake-effect Snowfall Totals
Carrie E. Lang, SUNY, Geneseo, NY; and E. A. Jones and N. F. Laird

142
Weather Regime-Dependent Predictability: Sequentially Linked High-Impact Weather Events over the United States during March 2016
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. C. Winters and D. Keyser

143
Comparisons between Canadian Limited Area Model (LAM) Simulations of the Lake Breeze and Lidar, Radar and Mesonet Measurements during the 2015 Pan American and Parapan American Games in Toronto
Armin Dehghan, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and Z. Mariani, S. Leroyer, P. Joe, S. Bélair, and D. Sills

144
Development of Real-Time Multi-Model Verification Website for Tropical Cyclones
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA

145
The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Errors on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide
Jeremy D. Berman, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

146
Skill of GEFS Medium-Range Reforecasts for Rossby Wave Breaking Associated with Extreme Precipitation in the Central and Eastern U.S
Benjamin J. Moore, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

147
A Study of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains
Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and T. K. Croan

148
Secondary Eyewall Forecast in HWRF
Sergio Abarca, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu, A. Mehra, and V. Tallapragada

149
Warm-Season Stationary Fronts East of the Rocky Mountains: Interannual and Interseasonal Distribution and Variability
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and P. K. Capute, J. O. Piersante, and E. G. Hoffman

150
The Importance of Wave Break Events for Synoptic Scale Buildups of Zonal Available Potential Energy
Kevin A. Bowley, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

151
Analysis of Late Summer Heat Waves in the Northeast US
Tomer Burg, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

152
Development of a Waterspout Sounding Climatology for the Florida Keys Wet Season
Andrew Devanas, NWS, Key West, FL; and K. Kasper, S. Daida, and M. Bloemer
Manuscript (3.2 MB)

Handout (3.1 MB)

153
Simulation of an Extreme Off Season Rainy Event over Senegal Using WRF ARW Model: A focus on dynamic, thermodynamic processes and predictability
Abdoulaye Sarr, National Meteorological Service of Senegal, Dakar-Fann, Senegal

154
Three-Dimensional Structure of Synoptic Waves over West Africa based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions
Yuan-Ming Cheng, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and G. N. Kiladis

155
Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Severe Storm Study in Brazil
Rafael Toshio Inouye, SIMEPAR - Parana Meteorological System, Curitiba, Brazil; and L. Calvetti, J. E. Goncalves, B. B. Maske, R. L. Neundorf, C. Beneti, F. L. R. Diniz, E. P. Vendrasco, D. L. Herdies, L. G. G. D. Goncalves, and A. F. Leite

156
How to Build a Multi-Mode Mesoscale Convective System: Requirements of an MCS with Simultaneous Regions of Forward and Backward Propagation
Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

157
The Predictability of Northern Hemispheric Blocking using an Ensemble Forecast System
DeVondria D. Reynolds, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and A. R. Lupo and A. D. Jensen

158
Downstream Predictability of the Path and Survival of Severe Wind Producing MCSs and Derechos using RUC Analysis Data
Russell G. Danielson, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

159
Characterizing and Predicting Along-Coast and Diurnal Marine Stratus Variability on the U.S. West Coast
Aaron Updike, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and W. Nuss

Handout (9.3 MB)

160
Sensitivity of Model Verification Results to Object Identification Parameters Using Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation – Time Domain
Shao Wen (Amy) Chen, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and A. Anderson and S. Tessendorf

Handout (1.7 MB)

161
Modeling the Nonlocal Effects of Summer Growing Season Irrigation in the Great Plains
Allison Bogusz, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. Ancell

162
Heavy Precipitation in the Oregon Coast Range: A Numerical Modeling Sensitivity Study
David R Bright, NWS, Portland, OR; and J. F. Pyle and C. R. Neuman

Handout (1.9 MB)

163
Undergraduate Forecast Skill by Participation Time in the WxChallenge National Weather Forecasting Contest: 2005 – 2016
Nicholas J. Eckstein, Ball State University, Muncie, IN

Handout (1.2 MB)

164
Verification of QPF Forecasts from the HRRR and RUC
Zainab Ali, NOAA, Greensboro, NC; and T. Dankers

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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