Downstream Predictability of the Path and Survival of Severe Wind Producing MCSs and Derechos using RUC Analysis Data

In this study, we focus on the downstream predictability of the path and survival of severe wind producing MCSs and derechos that already exist upstream. RUC analysis data were gathered 15 km ahead of severe wind producing MCSs and derechos perpendicular to their direction of path for the years 2006 to 2011. This data includes CAPE, wind shear, low-level moisture, low-level wind speed and direction, as well as other parameters that have been shown to affect the propagation of these systems. Statistical difference testing was completed for parameters in the path of these systems against parameters 15 km to the left and to the right of the track. The systems are stratified into bins such as day/night and location to gain further insight into their behavior. The objective is to improve the forecast process for convective watch issuances, and other forecast concerns, and to improve decision support services by providing thresholds for parameters that indicate the subsequent path of a system. This study builds upon others that have produced parameters such as the derecho composite and MCS maintenance, which try to answer this question in different ways.