Monday, 23 January 2017
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
The real-time verification and diagnostic system for Navy’s operational tropical cyclone prediction model, COAMPS-TC, has provided a suite of products and multi-model verification for more than eight years now. The system database includes thousands of real-time forecasts for over one hundred storms each year around the globe, including Atlantic, eastern central and western Pacific, Indian Ocean and southern Hemisphere, and the system supported several recent TC field experiments, such as Impacts of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP), Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3), and Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI). A new multi-model verification system will be presented that is general and will streamline the display of active storms. The sorting for the new multi-model verification is based on forecast time, forecast storms, different regions and seasons, and multiple model ensembles. This structural change extends the current real-time multi-model verification of track and intensity for single forecasts to real-time statistical verification and diagnostics (for example, track and intensity error and bias, etc.) for individual storms over their lifetime and multiple storms in different regions.
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