Expanding Probabilistic Precipitation Services

The weather enterprise has long recognized the need to expand probabilistic services for the nation. Precipitation is a high-impact and pervasive weather element upon which many critical decisions are made. This talk will highlight ongoing efforts within the National Weather Service to provide operational probabilistic precipitation services for rainfall, snowfall, and ice accumulation.  The NWS has set out to expand the operational use of the Weather Prediction Center probabilistic winter precipitation suite to at least 50 offices by the 2017-18 season, establish a prototype project for use of probabilistic rainfall at select WFOs and RFCs, improve the quality of probabilistic information both in terms of statistical reliability and in spatial resolution, and extend probabilistic information to 7 days. These services are based on a methodology that employs human experts leveraging ensemble information. This methodology, the associated product suite, and the customer response will be highlighted, with particular focus on remaining challenges.