Evaluation of Model Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts Against HWIND Analyses

Archived numerical model forecasts of North Atlantic hurricanes since 2008 are evaluated in an effort to better understand model biases and errors. The suite of numerical forecasts included in this study is comprised of short- and mid- range high-resolution control forecasts, as well as a small sample of lower-resolution ensemble forecasts, all of which is stored within the World Meteorological Organization's THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Rather than focusing on traditional metrics such as position and intensity, an emphasis is placed on evaluating the structure of the entire near-surface wind field. To that end, Risk Management Solutions’ Historical HWIND analyses are used as the baseline for this study. These recently completed HWIND reconstructions serve as a detailed objective and observationally based analysis system that aggregates data collected and standardized from Hurricane Hunter aircraft, satellite platforms, and various ground based stations to best estimate what is occurring across a tropical cyclone’s entire near-surface wind field at a given point in time in a storm’s lifecycle.