Poster Session 2 WAF/NWP Posters: Forecasting Tools, Numerical Weather Prediction, and Tropical Cyclones

Tuesday, 24 January 2017: 2:30 PM-4:00 PM
4E (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Rebecca Adams-Selin, AER, Offutt AFB, NE and Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, San Diego, CA

Posters on the Topics of: Tropical Cyclones, Forecasting Tools, New or Improved Parameterizations, Model Development and Application

Papers:
550
An Investigation of the Formation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)
Melinda S Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and H. Jin

551
Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)
Molly B. Smith, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, K. L. Corbosiero, and P. Pegion

Handout (9.1 MB)

552
Improvements in Nowcasting for High-Impact Severe Weather Events with Continuous Real-Time Thermodynamic Profiles
Kimberly A. Reed, Radiometrics, Boulder, CO; and D. Berchoff, L. Blanchette, J. D. Hardy, M. Nelson, R. Ware, and T. Wilfong

553
High-Resolution Simulation of Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016)
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and J. D. Doyle

554
Towards the creation of the Global-2-Vortex Scale Hurricane Prediction System
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan (gopal), NOAA/AOML, Key Biscayne, FL; and F. Marks, V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. J. Lin, R. Atlas, T. Schneider, and F. Toepfer

555
A Global Study of Synoptic-Scale Changes in Tropical Cyclone Structure and the Relationship to Large-Scale Moisture
Stephanie E. Zick, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA

Handout (17.9 MB)

556
Influences of Vertical Mixing in PBL on the Evolution of Landfalling Hurricanes
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and F. Zhang

557
Real-time TC Impact information for emergency and operational decision making
Sean S. Miller, Kinetic Analysis Corporation, Silver Spring, MD

Handout (41.6 MB)

558
Impacts of Ocean Initialization and Three-Way Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling on Hurricane Forecasting
Bin Liu, IMSG and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Meixner, A. Mehra, A. Chawla, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, B. Reichl, T. Hara, H. S. Kim, D. Sheinin, Z. Zhang, and V. Tallapragada

559
Evaluation of Model Hurricane Wind Field Forecasts Against HWIND Analyses
Michael E. Kozar, Risk Management Solutions, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Powell

560
Investigation of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Basin-Scale HWRF Ensemble System
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, and F. D. Marks Jr.

561
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Influence on the Probability of Tropical Cyclogenesis associated with African Easterly Waves
Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. Brammer

562
Incorporate Near Real Time Green Vegetation Fraction Products In The NAM System
Yihua Wu, NOAA, College Park, MD; and M. Ek

Joint Typhoon Warning Center: Tropical Cyclone Forecasting in the Pacific and Indian Oceans

563
Comparison of Modelled and Ground-Based Derived Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height at Iqaluit, Nunavut
Gabrielle Gascon, EC, Edmonton, AB, Canada; and Z. Mariani, A. Dehghan, R. W. Crawford, P. Joe, W. R. Burrows, and S. Melo

564
Exploiting Next Generation Satellite Data for Environmental and Tropical Cyclone Characterization at the Naval Research Laboratory
Rich Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, J. Cossuth, A. P. Kuciauskas, M. Surratt, and S. Yang

565
Quantitative Evaluation of AutoNowCaster Convective Likelihood
Mamoudou Bocar Ba, NOAA/NWS/STI, Silver Spring, MD; and J. Crockett, L. Xin, and S. B. Smith

Handout (987.7 kB) Handout (96.6 kB)

566
Multi-week Prediction of Significant Wave Heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
Ravi Shukla, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA; and J. L. Kinter III and C. S. Shin

567
Estimation and Correction of the GFS systematic errors
Kriti Bhargava, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay, J. Carton, and F. Yang

Handout (5.6 MB)

568
Using Satellite-Era Reanalysis Datasets for Synoptic Pattern Recognition of South Texas Heavy Rainfall Events
Michael E. Buchanan, NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Handout (8.6 MB)

569
An Agrometeorological Application of the Meteogram: “Agrometeogram”
Seung-Jae Lee, National Center for AgroMeteorology, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Kim, J. Song, and J. Kim

570
Adaptation of an Object-Based Verification Method for Moist Convection
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

571
Applications of Radar-Derived Shear Products Using an Updated Linear Least-Squares Derivative Technique
Matthew C. Mahalik, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and B. R. Smith and H. Obermeier
Manuscript (3.5 MB)

Handout (5.5 MB)

572
Further improvement in the JMA/GSM SHIPS by using GSMaP
Udai Shimada, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Owada, M. Yamaguchi, T. Iriguchi, M. Sawada, K. Aonashi, and M. DeMaria

573
From Short Fuse Warnings to Long Range Forecasts: The Role of the Meteorologist in America's Weather Industry

574
A New Dynamically-Based Metric to Discriminate between Re-intensifying and Decaying Extratropical Transition Cases
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and A. Raghavendra

Handout (3.9 MB)

575
Is There Value in Very High Resolution Weather Forecasts? Experiences from The Jefferson Project at Lake George
Campbell Watson, The Weather Company, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Cipriani, M. Tewari, A. Praino, L. Treinish, and M. Henderson

Handout (1.4 MB)

576
Impact of Horizontal Resolution on Next-Day CAM-Derived Probabilistic Severe Weather Forecasts
Eric D. Loken, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, M. Xue, and F. Kong

577
A Probabilistic Approach to Severe Weather Forecast Hazards for the El Paso Area

577A
The Signal of Future Tropical Cyclone Intensification in the CloudSat Measurements
Shun-Nan Wu, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Handout (6.5 MB)

578
Utilizing a Remotely-Sensed Snowfall Rate Algorithm to Verify Experimental Snowfall Rate Forecasts in the WPC Hydrometeorology Testbed
Sarah Perfater, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Folmer, B. Albright, and H. Meng

579
Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
Jessica Winton, NWS, Morristown, TN; and D. G. Hotz, D. Miller, L. Stewart, A. P. Barros, J. Forsythe, and A. P. Biazar

580
Verification of Automated Hail Forecasts from the 2016 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Joseph M Nardi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Gagne II, A. McGovern, and N. Snook

581
Improving Real-time Forecast Accuracy of Convective Morphology Through Use of an Ensemble
Bradley R. Carlberg, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and K. J. Franz

582
Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET): Helping Connect the Research and Operational Communities
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Wolff and T. Hertneky

583
Correspondence of Storm Attributes in NWP and Observations: a Look at Rotation Strength and Environmental Characteristics
Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. T. Smith, R. L. Thompson, I. L. Jirak, and S. R. Dembek

584
The Impact of Microphysics Schemes in Convection-Allowing Models on the Prediction of Banded Snowfall

584A
A Multiscale Analysis of Major Transition Season Northeast Snowstorms
Rebecca B. Steeves, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang and D. Keyser

585
Snow Level Forecasts Improved for Operations in Canada

586
Recent Advancements in Verification within the Developmental Testbed Center
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, B. Brown, B. Strong, L. Nance, and Y. H. Kuo

587
Precipitation Skill from a Convection Allowing Pseudo-Ensemble

588
The Environmental Modeling Center's Model Evaluation Group
Glenn H. White, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin, C. Guastini, and T. A. Dorian

589
Tropical Cyclone Outflow and Warm Core Structure as Revealed by HS3 and TCI Dropsondes
William A. Komaromi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle

590
The Introduction and Application of Severe Weather Monitoring Analysis Nowcasting Forecasting Warning Platform
Yongjun Zhu Sr., Ttianshui Meteorological Bureau, Tianshui, Gansu, China

591
Performance of The Weather Network's Unified Precipitation Nowcasting Using a Blend of Radar Extrapolation and HRRR Sub-Hourly
Majid Fekri, Pelmorex Media Inc, Oakville, ON, Canada; and I. Russell

592
Weather and Climate Analysis Applications of a Satellite Visible and Infrared Imager-Based Overshooting Cloud Top Detection Product
Kristopher M. Bedka, LRC, Hampton, VA; and K. V. Khlopenkov, C. Wang, B. Scarino, M. L. Nordeen, C. R. Yost, and P. Minnis

593
The Sensitivity of Orographic Precipitation to Flow Direction: An Idealized Modeling Approach

594
Precipitation Properties in a Multi-Year Database of Convection-Allowing WRF Simulations
David Goines, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and A. Kennedy

595
Using the Global Modeling TestBed Single Column Model to Test a Newly Developed Convective Parameterization
Grant J. Firl, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO

Handout (3.6 MB)

596
The Recurrence of Heavy Rainfalls in December 2015 and March 2016: Long Range Forecasting Implications
Joseph Renken, KOPN Radio Columbia, MO, Columbia, MO; and J. Herman, T. Bradshaw, and A. R. Lupo

597
Evaluating the Severe Fire Weather Potential Index for Determining Initial Attack Success in Washington

598
A Generalized Formulation of Convective Adjusment Timescale for Cumulus Parameterization Schemes
Jian He, EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and K. Alapaty and J. A. Herwehe

599
Improving the GFS Boundary Layer Parameterization for Global Tropical Cyclone Predictions
Kun Gao, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and J. H. Chen, S. J. Lin, and L. M. Harris

600
Land Surface Upgrades in the Next NCEP NEMS Implementation
Helin Wei, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG, College Park, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, and M. B. Ek

601
A New Formulation of Microphysical Variability in Cumulus Convective Clouds
Yefim Kogan, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

602
Evaluation of the Grell-Freitas Convective Scheme within the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based Global Spectral Model (GSM)
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Henderson, J. K. Wolff, C. Holt, L. R. Bernardet, H. Jiang, and L. B. Nance

603
Implementation and Analyzing the Grell-Freitas Convective Parameterization in The NOAA Environmental Modeling System-Based Global Spectral Model

604
Development of a Physically Based Autoconversion Parameterization and Its Application to Cloud Modeling
Hyunho Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and J. J. Baik

Handout (683.0 kB)

605
Comprehensive results of NEMS from different Cloud Microphysics, Cloud fraction, and the related Radiation physics
Hsin-mu lin, IMSG, NCEP, College Park, MD; and B. S. Ferrier, Y. T. Hou, and G. Thompson

Handout (553.7 kB)

606
Wave Reflection Caused by Sponge Layer Configuration
Gian A. Villamil-Otero, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin and R. D. Sharman

607
Quantifying How Positional and Timing Errors in the Prediction of Synoptic Scale Systems Extract a Penalty When Verifying Weather Forecasts
Harvey Stern, Univ. of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
Manuscript (514.9 kB)

Handout (630.1 kB)

608
Data Assimilation Impact from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) System on the GFS Forecast

609
Impact Study of Surface Albedo in US Navy Global Weather Prediction System
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, M. S. Peng, and T. F. Hogan

610
The Effects of Numerical Noise on Perturbation Experiments
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX

Handout (386.9 kB)

611
An Objective Approach for Correcting Model Bias in the GEOS-5 AGCM
Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Koster, H. Wang, and M. Suarez

612
Object-based Verification for the HRRR Model Using Simulated and Observed GOES Infrared Brightness Temperatures
Sarah M. Griffin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, C. M. Rozoff, J. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, C. Alexander, R. Bullock, J. H. Gotway, T. L. Jensen, and J. K. Wolff

613
NWP Cloud Forecasting Enables Free Space Optical Communications
Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss

614
Evaluation of Regional Climate Downscaling in the Tropics
Ricardo Morais Fonseca, Luleå University, Kiruna, Sweden; and T. Zhang and T. Y. Koh

Handout (3.4 MB)

615
HRRR-AK: A High-Resolution, Rapidly Cycled Forecast Model for Alaska
Trevor Alcott, GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, S. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt

616
Is There a Role for Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction?
Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby

617
Stringent Comparison and Evaluation of CMIP5 Model Sea Surface Temperatures
seoyeon Lee, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. Y. Kim

Using tendency of semi-Lagrangian advection for Eulerian forcing

618
A Non-Parametric Definition of Summary NWP Forecast Assessment Metrics
Ross N. Hoffman, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and S. A. Boukabara, V. K. Kumar, K. Garrett, S. Casey, and R. Atlas
Manuscript (513.1 kB)

Handout (680.3 kB)

Convection-Permitting Regional Weather Modeling with COSMO-EULAG: Compressible and Anelastic Solutions for a Typical Westerly Flow over the Alps

619
Application of High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Nowcasting in Korea
Limtak Yu, Pukyong National Univ., Busan, Korea, Republic of (South); and D. I. Lee, Y. Hwang, Y. Kim, and C. H. You

620
Analysis of Grid Imprinting on the Cubed-Sphere

621
Using the NAMRR Cloud Analysis in a Cycled Radar Data Assimilation Forecast of the 26 December 2015 Texas Tornado Event
Jeffrey D. Duda, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang and J. R. Carley

Poster 622 has been moved. It is now Paper J6.6A

623
Evaluation of WRF in Simulating Multi-Band Precipitation Structures Within Northeast U.S. Winter Storms
Ryan Connelly, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

624
Improving COAMPS Forecasts of Low-level Winds and Significant Wave Heights in the Strait of Hormuz and Arabian Gulf

625
Simulating the Atmospheric Response to a Wildland Fire using a Cloud-Resolving Model
Marshall Stageberg, Michigan State University, Lansing, MI; and A. F. Srock and J. J. Charney

626
Development and applications of the adjoint of the non-hydrostatic GEOS-5 FV3 dynamical core
Daniel Holdaway, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Kim

627
The Importance of Sea Surface Information in Forecasts of Precipitation from Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers
Andrew Martin, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and R. R. Weihs

628
Assessing MCS Predictability with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, T. Ladwig, C. R. Alexander, and G. J. Creager

629
Applying The Deep Atmospheric Concept to The NCEP Mesoscale Spectrum Model: First Part - Implementation of a Generalized Coordinate

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
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