Warn-on-Detection to Warn-on-Forecast by 2020?

A primary goal of the Warn-on-Forecast Program (WoFP) is to transform the current NWS warning paradigm from one that is deterministic and depends heavily on warn-on-detection methods, to one that is probabilistic and depends also on warn-on-forecast methods. Envisioned are reliable and calibrated on-demand, regional sub-hourly cycled storm-scale forecasts that enable extended warning lead times for high-impact weather threats.

In 2009 the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) began the research program needed to investigate the potential to accomplish this goal. During the next three to five years, the current 3-km NSSL Experimental WoF System for Ensembles, NEWS-E, will be evolving from a 3-km convection-allowing model to a 0.5–1 km convection resolving model.  Concurrently, a form of this system will be evolving to an increased technical readiness level through collaborative research and evaluation by researchers, forecasters, and other potential users within the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. This presentation will summarize the accumulated scientific and technological progress by NSSL scientists and other collaborators and researchers toward the program’s main goal and lay out the research planned to achieve a user-tested baseline real-time WoF ensemble prediction system a reality by the 2020’s.