Evaluation of Calibrated Probabilistic Hazard Guidance during the 2016 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

In support of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) concept, 4-hour calibrated probabilistic guidance for tornado, hail, and wind was generated in real time during the 2016 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE).  The 4-h probabilistic guidance was calibrated using relevant environmental fields from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system and storm-attribute fields from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO).  This calibrated guidance was examined in the HWT during the Day 1 forecast process and was made available to participants as editable, first-guess guidance in generating experimental 4-hour convective outlooks.  The statistical performance and attributes of the calibrated probabilistic hazard guidance during the 2016 HWT SFE will be discussed along with subjective impressions from the participants regarding the utility of the first-guess guidance.