The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Advancements Made in Recent Operational Implementations

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) has recently achieved its goals to reduce the error in track and intensity forecast guidance from operational numerical model systems by 20% in the first five years of its inception. The program has now entered its next stage where the goals are to further reduce these errors to 50% in a ten-year total timeframe. Additional goals of HFIP include significantly improved capabilities to forecast rapid intensification and weakening, tropical cyclogenesis and skillful 7 day forecasts of tropical storms.  For the last few years HFIP has been evaluating a number of approaches to reach these goals including advanced data assimilation for operational systems, high resolution global (~20-30 km) and regional (~1-4 km) models run as ensembles, and advanced statistical post processing of model output.  Significant advances in track guidance skill have been demonstrated from both global and regional models through the use of ensemble based hybrid data assimilation, and in intensity guidance skill from improved regional models with the inclusion of high-resolution data collected within the hurricane inner core and its environment. We will present an outline of HFIP and present the most recent results, particularly the components that put into operations in the last year, and the impact those changes had on operational model guidance skill.  Results from research supported by HFIP FFOs and their influence on advancements to the operational systems will also be discussed, highlighting the success of HFIP as a program supporting R2O, and leading to the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Project.