Session 2B Hydrometeorological Extremes, Part II

Monday, 23 January 2017: 1:30 PM-2:30 PM
602 (Washington State Convention Center )
Host: 31st Conference on Hydrology
John McHenry, Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems, Chief Scientist, Raleigh, NC
Ana P. Barros, Duke Univ., Civil and Env Eng, Durham, NC

High-impact hydro-meteorological events produce the most destructive and costly outcomes of any weather-driven phenomena world-wide. Furthermore, despite significant progress over the last several decades, forecasting and warning for these events still lacks the precision that could minimize loss of property and life, especially in developing nations. However, new observational platforms (in-situ, remote) and data-collection methods are improving our ability to assess ongoing events as well as forecast and distinguish those that could be destructive from those that probably will not be. Excessive precipitation or runoff associated with tropical cyclones/convection, land-based convection, atmospheric rivers, ENSO, wintertime snow-melt, rain-on-snow, etc. results in both flash-flooding and large-river system floods whose characteristics often depend on local soils, vegetation/agriculture, and topography. Conversely, severe droughts create deleterious impacts on crop/food production and the water supply. In this session, papers are invited that contribute to our ability to improve real-time/operational forecasts and warnings for these kinds of extremes, especially observational (as well as modeling) approaches that may vary depending upon differing societal contexts. In addition, papers that address promising and innovative methods of assessing and modeling the statistics of observed hydro-meteorological extremes as applied to real-time/operational forecasting/warning systems are encouraged. Papers that document forecast system performance vis-a-vis the effect of including new or additional observations are also encouraged. Please contact the session chair, Ana Barros ( or the session organizer, John McHenry ( for additional information.

1:30 PM
A Comparison of 36-year versus 28-year Climatology Length on the NLDAS Drought Monitor and Its Indicators
Youlong Xia, EMC/NCEP/IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, D. M. Mocko, B. Narapusetty, S. Kumar, and C. D. Peters-Lidard
1:45 PM
Estimating Monotonic and Cyclic Trends in Extreme Rainfall over the Northeast United States Using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression
Ali Hamidi, City University of New York, New York, NY; and D. J. Farnham, N. Devineni, and R. Khanbilvardi
2:15 PM
Evaluation of In-Situ Soil Moisture Metrics to Monitoring Hydrological Extremes
Ronald D. Leeper, CICS/North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. E. Bell
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