A Novel Process to Discover and Transition New Capabilities in Analysis and Nowcast (0–18-Hour Forecast) Range for Meeting U.S. Forecast Service Needs

The National Weather Service (NWS) recently created the Analysis and Nowcast Branch (ANB) within its Analyze, Forecast and Support Office. This new Branch has two primary purposes: 1) collect field requirements and identify forecasting gaps in the near term (0-18 hour) time frame, and 2) develop and implement a vetting process to recommend innovations to improve critical analysis and short-term (0-18 hour) forecast capabilities to meet the needs of NWS forecasters. Such a capability will improve the provision of Impact-based Decision Support Services as called for in the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 (P.L. 115-25).

ANB is taking a science-based approach to requirements development to objectively determine which Analysis and Nowcast tools are most supportive of field forecasters in their forecast process. This analysis will enable prioritization of future investments for transitioning to field offices for operational use in coordination with NWS’ Office of Science and Technology Integration.

To support partnership with the weather enterprise, ANB organized a session for the Eighth Conference on the Transition of Research to Operations, entitled “Improving R2O & O2R in Analysis and Nowcast (0-18 Hour Forecast) Range including the R&D, V&V (Verification & Validation), Post-processing, and Operationalization: Potential of new or enhanced capabilities for meeting US service needs in analysis and nowcast.“

This introductory talk for this session will present our new approach to collecting, validating and prioritizing new or improved (as well as existing) tools, including models, systems and methods spanning the 0-18 hour forecast range. The outcome of this session, together with input from community members attending its companion Town Hall Meeting at this conference and also NWS field forecasters being collected through an in-depth survey, will provide valuable input for deriving the operational requirements for the 0-18 hour forecast period.