GOES-16 ABI Channel Differencing Used to Reveal Cloud-Free Zones of "Precursors of Convective Initiation"

Some potential GOES-16 future products involving convection include (1) identifying existing clouds that are likely to undergo convective initiation and (2) provide the probability that a storm will produce severe weather. Both of these experimental products require pre-existing cumulus clouds. The primary goal of our research is to fill in an important missing piece in the timeline of convective evolution, i.e., where the convective clouds will initially form. Specifically, we aim to identify regions where thunderstorm development is likely to occur in clear-sky conditions.

GOES-16 has the capability to detect horizontal gradients in boundary layer water vapor at unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. Channel differencing of brightness temperatures at both 10.35 µm and 12.3 µm with a temporal frequency of 5 minutes allows for the monitoring of regions of deepening water vapor at spatial scales of convection, known as cloud-free zones of precursors of convective initiation.

Examples of cloud-free zones of precursors to convective initiation will be provided for various cases which occurred during the spring of 2017.