Value Variance Analysis in Constellation Architecture Studies

The NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study has examined nearly 100 alternative weather satellite constellations, looking for the most cost effective arrangement of instruments, satellite orbits, and sustainment policies. Examining the cost-effectiveness of potential future satellite constellations requires quantification of each constellation’s ability to provide a set of sensor capabilities that support mission functions. The effectiveness, or value, of each alternative satellite architecture depends on orbital assignments, instrument payloads, and launch frequency required to maintain given levels of constellation performance. A key complexity in the value assessment is uncertainty, we neither know the stakeholders preferences nor the alternative system’s performance with certainty. Key sources of uncertainty include priority of different observation types and performance estimation of different constellation types against value measures. This paper presents several methods to assess value uncertainty of the large number of constellation examined in the NSOSA study. These methods focus on value uncertainty related to stakeholder consensus, constellation performance scoring, and stakeholder preference. The methods include approaches to resolving the strong correlations that exist between constellations because of shared satellite configurations.