Improving Coastal Wind Forecasting in the Delaware Bay

Improving coastal forecasting in Southern Delaware is important for agriculture, the fishing industry, tourism, wind and solar power production, and for disaster preparedness. This project explores whether using in situ wind and surface temperature data in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) improves prediction of coastal weather. Since 2011, the Cape May-Lewes Ferry has been collecting atmospheric and water quality data as it crosses the mouth of the Delaware Bay. New methods were developed to process the ferry data so that they could be used as forcing data for the models, along with observations from Delaware Environmental Observing System (DEOS) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). Model simulations were run on select case studies identified using synoptic typing and NEXRAD data. The model outputs were analyzed and compared against historical radar data to study sea breezes. Sea breezes are the largest source of summertime wind variability and are a challenge to forecast. The results of this project will allow meteorologists to better-forecast sea breezes. Future research will attempt to modify parameters in the model to better simulate the onset, dissipation, and magnitude of sea breeze events.