Research-to-Operations Efforts in Support of FACETs: Results from the Initial Phase and a Look Ahead

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) is a proposed next-generation hazardous weather watch/warning framework that is modern, flexible, and designed to communicate clear and simple hazardous weather information to serve the public. This initiative originated in the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) with a focus on severe convective weather and flash flooding. In 2015, NSSL worked with a variety of public and private sector partners to develop a Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) to guide physical and social science research-to-operations efforts toward achieving a FACETs paradigm. Later that year, a US Weather Research Program (USWRP) grant was awarded to NSSL, along with collaborators at the Storm Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, Environmental Systems Research Lab, University of Oklahoma, and University of Akron, to begin work on twelve of the highest priority SSIP projects. This three-year project of projects, called “Probability of What? Understanding and Conveying Uncertainty through Probabilistic Hazard Services,” has yielded important initial results in its first two years.

As this project enters its third year, NSSL is working with its partners to evaluate the progress made through this effort, and others, toward achieving the goals of the SSIP. This analysis of the state of FACETs related R2O is also informing the process of developing a revised second version of the SSIP to guide the next phase of R2O. This presentation will provide an overview of the current status and planned future efforts.