4.1 A Cloud Analysis and Forecasting System (CAN) for the 2018 Winter Olympics

Monday, 8 January 2018: 3:15 PM
Room 14 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Yoonjin Lee, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. Albers, K. D. Ahn, C. D. Kummerow, Y. H. Lee, Z. Toth, and Y. Xie

The 23rd Olympic Winter and the 13th Paralympic Winter Games will be held in PyeongChang, Korea in February - March, 2018. To support the Winter Games with accurate weather prediction and to study severe winter weather over the complex terrain of the venues, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) initiated the International Collaborative Experiments for Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018[1]) project. ICE-POP involves observation, nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, and verification related activities and is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization. An array of radars and other instruments (including cloud physics observatories) have been deployed around the venues in support of experimental nowcasting and very short-range forecasting products. All experimental products will be used and evaluated during the Games and will undergo careful verification after the events.

One of a half-dozen nowcast or very short range forecast systems contributed by various international research groups is the Cloud Analysis and Nowcast (CAN) supported by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). CAN is based on the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) used operationally at the US National Weather Service (NWS). As one of its world-wide users, KMA adapted LAPS (K-LAPS) in the 1990s. CAN features the 3/4Dvar Space and Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS) for the analysis of basic state variables and an enhanced version of the 1Dvar analysis of cloud hydrometeors from LAPS. Additional CIRA enhancements to CAN include the ability to ingest data from the recently launched Korean Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS), as well as from an array of ICE-POP 2018 experimental observations.

During the Games, CAN analyses will support situational awareness, and through the initialization of the UK Metoffice’s Unified Model (UM), nowcast applications. As a unique feature, CAN produces Simulated Weather IMagery (SWIM) that realistically visualizes weather, including clouds, precipitation, and surface conditions. As such, SWIM will bring innovative photo-like products that can be utilized by forecasters and the general public alike. The presentation concludes with a demonstration of CAN nowcast products over the ICE-POP 2018 domains.

[1] The authors greatly appreciate the opportunity to participate in the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Research Development Project (RDP) and Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP): International Collaborative Experiments for Pyeongchang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018), hosted by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

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