The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Program Update

The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Program Update

The National Weather Service (NWS) has established a Research to Operations (R2O) initiative to create an advanced Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to provide more reliable forecasts, and to address growing service demands for a Weather Ready Nation. By accelerating model development, implementing improved model components, utilizing NOAA’s new high-performance computing (HPC) capabilities, and advancing the processing of data, NGGPS will:

• Extend forecast skill beyond 8 to 10 days and support development of products for weeks 3 and 4 to extend weather forecasting to 30 days
• Improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts

The proposed NGGPS Coupled Model will include a single atmospheric dynamic core; a suite of atmospheric physics; numerical ocean, wave, sea ice, land surface, and aerosol and atmospheric composition models; supporting functions such as data assimilation systems, ensemble design, post-processing, and guidance products within the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) infrastructure.

Model development teams, comprised of scientists and modelers from NOAA and across US Government agencies and laboratories, cooperative institutions, universities, and the international numerical weather prediction community, are working on various aspects of NGGPS to determine the state of the science, identify gaps and opportunities, and leverage other ongoing programs and projects.

Following the NWS selection of a new dynamic core for the NGGPS, efforts have been focused on activities associated with the operational implementation of the NGGPS planned for Q3FY2019. Associated component improvements in areas including physics, data assimilation, and post-processing are underway. The Global Modeling Test Bed (GMTB)/Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) are being employed in development efforts to encourage and facilitate community interaction while streamlining the path between research and operations. Other development includes efforts to unify the modeling systems and workflow within the NWS.