J28.5 Multimodel MJO Simulation and Prediction in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)

Tuesday, 9 January 2018: 11:30 AM
Room 2 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Kathy Pegion, George Mason Univ., Raleigh, NC

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a NOAA/MAPP/Climate Testbed project focused on subseasonal predictability and predictions. Six global models are producing seventeen years of ensemble retrospective forecasts initialized weekly to investigate subseasonal prediction and predictability. Additionally, this project began producing real-time predictions in support of the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center as guidance for their week-3/4 outlooks in July 2017.

This work will show a comprehensive evaluation of how well the models participating in SubX can represent and predict the characteristics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, including variability of MJO-related convection and circulation anomalies as well as its amplitude, and propagation. Model biases in MJO convection and circulation and deterministic and probabilistic skill will also be shown. These analyses will be performed and compared for individual models and the multi-model ensemble using re-forecast data and the first six months of real-time forecasts.

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