Long-Range Forecasting of Marine Advection Fog along the U.S. Gulf Coast

Marine advection fog is a common occurrence across oceans, bays, and ship channels worldwide, and can last from a few hours to up to a week. Along the U.S. Gulf Coast, fog season typically runs from mid-November to mid-April. Multi-day closures of ship channels/ports and near-shore waterways are common during fog season, and can have a major impact on port operations, shipping logistics and vessel movement in the coastal environment.

Knowing of a potential extended-duration ship channel or port closure days in advance can help coastal interest better prepare for a shortage of raw materials, and take mitigating actions. For example, refineries that require a tanker of crude oil every 48 hours to keep operating can scale back operations and stockpile crude in the days leading up to an extended ship channel closure, preventing a potential very costly shutdown. Likewise, cruise line operations can accelerate or adjust schedules to plan on arriving in port ahead of expected closures. In this presentation, we will demonstrate some success that we have had in forecasting multi-day ship channel closures due to marine advection fog up to a week in advance.