The Potential Impacts of 1.5° and 2.0°C Global Warming Scenarios on Human Exposure to the Virus Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti

Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, 195 nations set goals to limit long-term global warming to 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels, and 1.5 C if possible. We investigate how these two climate change scenarios, coupled with two distinct socioeconomic pathways, may modulate future human exposure to the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti. Aedes aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever, four globally-important vector-borne diseases. Future occurrence patterns for Aedes aegypti will be mapped globally using empirically downscaled ensemble air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model for the 1.5 and 2.0 C scenarios. Population growth will be quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. The relative costs and benefits of each combination of climate change and socioeconomic pathways, in terms of human exposure to Aedes aegypti, will be presented.