Improving Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Aviation Forecasts in the Very Short Range through Rapid Infusion of Surface Observations

The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provides the aviation community with skillful forecast guidance of many weather elements, including ceiling height and visibility (C&V), through the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). The LAMP and Gridded LAMP (GLMP) systems provide station-based and gridded forecast guidance for several elements, including C&V, on the National Digital Forecast Database 2.5-km grid. LAMP and GLMP forecast guidance is available hourly and covers the short-range forecast period of 1-25 hours. The LAMP and GLMP systems were updated in the spring of 2017 to include model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model to improve the LAMP and GLMP guidance.

In a collaborative effort between MDL, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the NWS’s Aviation Weather Center (AWC), MDL is providing updates of LAMP and GLMP guidance experimentally every 15 minutes using the most recently received METAR and SPECI observations. While LAMP continues to produce forecast guidance to 25 hours once an hour, with this initiative the LAMP and GLMP systems also provide 3 additional updates per hour of both station-based and gridded forecast guidance for C&V for 1-3 hours in the future. The new guidance is available experimentally for use by NWS forecasters and other partners in the weather enterprise.

This upgraded, rapidly-updating LAMP/GLMP system will be implemented into NWS operations in the fall of 2017. This updated guidance will be available operationally to AWC for potential use in their Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) tool, which can be used to assist in making go/no-go decisions on helicopter travel to any location where medical transportation might be needed. This presentation will summarize the transition of this work from research to operations, and highlight the benefits of incorporating the most recent surface observations and rapidly updating the LAMP/GLMP guidance via verification statistics and case studies. Disclaimer: This research is in response to requirements and funding by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the FAA.