Communicating NCEP Model Upgrades

The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO) mission is to execute the operational model suite, manage enhancements provided by the research and development organizations and support the data and system infrastructures. NCO strives to maintain integrity with each model upgrade and provide transparency to the public through our implementation documentation.

The NCO process of implementing a model upgrade takes up to 15 weeks end to end, and on average 25 models are upgraded each year. Over 100 TB of model data is downloaded per day through NCEP web services. Coordinating an upgrade that includes changes to any aspect of the data is challenging. The current upgrade structure follows these general guidelines:

1. To allow users access to parallel model data NCO has a dedicated http site (para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov). This ensures that there are no impacts or confusion with the operational data. A real time flow of data is sent to Para NOMADS that includes all of the changes users should test with prior to implementation.

2. Once the data is available for public consumption, a listserv announcement will be distributed to all subscribers indicating where data can be found.

3. Around 5 weeks prior to the implementation date a formal Service Change Notice (SCN) is distributed to the public and follows NWS directive 10-1805.

4. On the scheduled implementation date the parallel model data will be promoted into operations and begin flowing across all distribution channels.

This presentation discusses the current process of upgrading and implementing a model into the NCO operational suite – including documented notifications, timelines, data availability, and the known deficiencies of our processes; while also encouraging audience participation and feedback.