Testing the Utility of High-Resolution Convection-Allowing Models at Longer Time Scales to Improve Excessive Rainfall Outlooks at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center

The Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment (FFaIR) conducted in NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center Hydrometeorology Testbed (WPC-HMT) brings together participants from the operational forecasting, research, and modeling communities to investigate methods for improving flash flood forecasting through exercises that apply both experimental atmospheric and hydrologic guidance to the forecast process. The 2017 FFaIR Experiment featured both experimental and operational high-resolution convective-allowing guidance, which was used to create daily probabilistic excessive rainfall forecasts. This testbed activity was designed to improve the skill of predicting the areal and temporal scales of impactful heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding within a pseudo-operational environment.

Until recently, high-resolution convective-allowing deterministic guidance has been available primarily for creating Day 1 forecasts. However, the 2017 FFaIR Experiment tested its utility at longer time ranges for improving the skill of the Day 2 and Day 3 WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) products. Featured experimental guidance were provided by the model development teams at ESRL/GSD, OU/CAPS, the UK Met Office, the Model Development Lab (MDL), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), and NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).

This poster will exhibit the subjective scores and objective skill results of the Days 2 and 3 experimental guidance and EROs created in the 2017 WPC-HMT FFaIR Experiment, with insight regarding the potential transition from research to operations.