J45.4 Excessive Heat Events and Health: Building Resilience Based on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Excessive Heat Outlook Systems

Wednesday, 10 January 2018: 2:15 PM
Room 18B (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
Augustin Vintzileos, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD

Excessive heat events (EHE) are the top cause for morbidity/mortality associated to any atmospheric extremes. As the population becomes older and EHE are projected to increase in intensity and frequency the associated abnormal mortality is expected to grow. In this paper we first show that forecast of EHE at lead times of week-2 and week-3 is feasible over the contiguous United States. We then introduce a definition of the intensity of EHE and investigate its predictability at lead times of week-2 and week-3. Finally, we comment on the possibility of forecasting the statistics of EHE and their intensity at seasonal lead times.
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