Recent Upgrades in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling at NWS/NCEP Using the R2O Process

Regional Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone (TC) modeling systems implemented at NWS/NCEP operations are now used for providing forecast guidance in all ocean basins of the world. Lately, HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast) modeling system has made significant improvements to the state-of-the-art in numerical track, intensity, structure and rainfall forecast guidance out to 5 days in advance throughout the life cycle of TCs.. These improvements come from advances in various components of the modeling system that are incorporated into the model in yearly upgrade cycles via the R2O process. In addition, a new Hurricane model called HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model) has been implemented in operations at NWS/NCEP for the 2017 season, replacing the legacy Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model that served NCEP operations for more than two decades. Initial operating capability for HMON is confined to TCs in the North Atlantic, North Eastern Pacific and North Central Pacific basins.

This presentation will focus on describing the performance of the operational HWRF and HMON for tropical cyclones of 2017. Significant advancements to these modeling system have been made possible through focused research and developmental efforts, systematic testing and evaluation, and this presentation will highlight the efficient mechanism established for research transitioning to operations (R2O) through support from HFIP and NGGPS. Efforts for further advancements to these Tropical Cyclone modeling systems for improved tropical cyclone prediction capabilities will also be discussed.