Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics Research into the Next Generation Global Prediction System for NCEP Research to Operations

The continuous improvement in the science of weather forecasting research over the last decades is shown in the improvement of NOAA's operational systems in terms of the accuracy of weather forecasts. In addition to the technology advances that have enabled the execution of complex algorithms are the techniques from increased science knowledge of atmospheric physics incorporated into numerical weather prediction models. An example of the process of transferring atmospheric research to operations is the Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)^†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: Calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Extending the FV3-top with the deep-atmosphere equations need evaluation of numerical stability details. The UGWP highlights the metric in QBO generation and improved representation to seasonal predictions and therefore, extending the assimilation system with MLS/SABER satellite observations. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 and other configurations including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores.

^†http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS