Enhancing Coastal Water Level Forecasting to Support the Protection of Life and Property

The demand for forecasts of water level and coastal inundation information due to surge, tides and waves continues to increase as population and property becomes located closer to the water. In addition, as sea levels rise coastal population and property is more vulnerable. After recent storms that affected the East Coast of the United States, including Superstorm Sandy, a deficiency in National Weather Service coastal inundation prediction and warning messaging was identified. The specific deficiency was the lack of detail in the forecasts of water level and coastal inundation along the coast. Previously, only limited text based and zone based graphical products were available.

As a result, the National Weather Service Eastern Region has embarked on a project to have all offices produce and disseminate, via multiple outlets, total water level forecasts for many different locations. These forecasts will be tied into impacts for coastal areas including connections with possible inundation. It is the goal of this project to be able to communicate this needed information at all times, not only when tropical cyclones are present. This information will work to supplement the information provided by the National Hurricane Center during times of tropical cyclone threats to the coastline of the Eastern United States. This presentation will detail the enhancements that have been made, an overview of how the forecasts are created and examples from the late fall and early winter of 2017.