Meteorological Overview and Model Analysis of the Historic June 23rd, 2017 Mid-Michigan Flooding

In a historic flooding event, areas of the Mid-Michigan counties of Bay, Gladwin, Isabella and Midland received over 5 inches of rain within 10 hours during the evening of June 22^nd - 23^rd , with storm totals exceeding 7 inches. Total damage was estimated to be near $90 million in Isabella county with 20 road closures, and near $13 million in Midland county with 13 road closures, causing a Presidential Disaster to be declared for the four counties. HRRRX forecasts along with hand analysis of upper-air and surface maps, FLASH (Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs) data, QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation), radar, and SPC graphics were used to analyze how the moisture, lift and instability came together in producing the flooding and its impacts. The focus of this study is to assess the role of antecedent soil moisture conditions on the flooding and to analyze the quality of the HRRRX forecasts for this event.