ADCIRC Model Verification of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge in the Gulf of Mexico

Storm surge is the deadliest and costliest threat associated with hurricanes. Because of this, considerable effort has been invested in forecasting coastal storm surge from tropical cyclones. The goal of this study is to compare verified storm surge heights from specific tropical cyclones to the values generated from the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model to assess the accuracy of the ADCIRC system. ADCIRC uses a varied resolution mesh grid to save computing power away from the coast (100 km) while providing high resolution (100 m) in coastal regions. Once the model is complete, an interpolation is applied to the ADCIRC model output to statistically evaluate the accuracy of the ADCIRC model run. This analysis uses the maximum elevation of each element during the passage of the storm. Correlative variables are evaluated and discrepancies between actual high water mark data and modeled storm surge heights are addressed. These results will display how and where the ADCIRC model can be improved in the future.