Sunday, 7 January 2018
Exhibit Hall 5 (ACC) (Austin, Texas)
In spite of continual improvements in overall quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) estimates, warm season (April – September) estimates have continued to perform poorly relative to their cooler counterparts. To improve the prediction and forecasting of warm-season QPF, this study analyzed nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) occurring in the corn belt region for a three year period between 2015 - 2017. Twenty-five cases were selected on the basis of duration (> 5hrs), reflectivity (> 30 dBZ), time of day (00Z - 12Z), time of year (JJA), and synoptic length ( >150 km). For the selected cases, layers 50 mb in depth, beginning at 950 mb and ending at 500 mb, were evaluated for regions of frontogenesis in GARP. These regions were compared with Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) to determine if there is a correlation between the maximum region of frontogenesis and the region of maximum rainfall. This assessment was performed at each layer of the atmosphere for multiple hours. Preliminary results indicate that the highest correlation exists near 700 mb.
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