Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis

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Wednesday, 1 February 2006: 4:30 PM
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis
A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Stacey Seseske, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart

Presentation PDF (125.7 kB)

The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) is a key component in the strategic planning of air traffic over the National Air System (NAS). The forecasts are used primarily by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and airline dispatchers to determine whether alternate flight routes are necessary for moving air traffic around convective weather. The CCFP is issued with lead times of two, four and six hours, with the strategic emphasis placed on the four and six hour forecasts.

Two of the most significant CCFP attributes are the coverage of convective weather within a forecast polygon and the forecaster confidence in meeting the minimum forecast requirements. In this analysis, the frequency of issuance of the coverage and confidence attributes is examined. This information provides a summary of CCFP forecast characteristics that can be applied to strategic risk assessment activities.