18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

« Collapse View
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 28 January 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Saturday, 28 January 2006


Sat 28 Jan

7:30 AM-7:31 AM: Saturday, 28 January 2006


Short Course and Student Conference Registration

Sunday, 29 January 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Sunday, 29 January 2006


Sun 29 Jan

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 29 January 2006


Short Course Registration

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 29 January 2006


Conference Registration

Monday, 30 January 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Mon 30 Jan

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Registration Continues through Thursday, 2 February

9:00 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Session 1
Forecast Evaluation
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS
  9:00 AM
1.1
The skill of forecasting relatively isolated severe thunderstorm events
Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (75.8 kB)

  9:15 AM
1.2
Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA
Jeral G. Estupiñán, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (387.7 kB)

  9:30 AM
1.3
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and A. E. Raftery
  Recorded presentation

  9:45 AM
1.4
Overestimating Forecast Skill Through Improper Application of Verification Metrics: Simpson's Paradox in Meteorology
Thomas M. Hamill, Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Juras

  10:00 AM
1.5
Paper 1.5 moved. New paper number 8.1A

  10:01 AM
1.6
Extending ROC analysis to the multicategory forecast problem
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona and NSSL, Norman, OK ; and S. L. Mullen
  Recorded presentation

  10:16 AM
1.7
Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images
Thomas C.M. Lee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and R. G. Bullock
  Recorded presentation

  10:31 AM
1.8
Bayesian Verification Measures for Forecasts of Continuous Predictands
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

  10:46 AM
1.9
Application of Evidence Theory to Quantify Uncertainty in Forecast of Hurricane Path
Svetlana V. Poroseva, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Letschert and M. Y. Hussaini

Presentation PDF (479.0 kB)

  11:01 AM
1.10
A New Spatial Scale Decomposition of the Brier Score for the Verification of Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts
Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Presentation PDF (825.0 kB)

  11:16 AM
1.6A
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

12:00 PM-1:10 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Plenary Session 1
AMS Forum Kick-Off Luncheon (Cash & Carry available in the Meeting Room Foyer)
Hosts: (Joint between the 14th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the Air and Waste Management Assoc; the The James Holton Symposium; the Third Symposium on Space Weather; the Event Program; the AMS Forum: Environmental Risk and Impacts on Society: Successes and Challenges; the AMS Forum: Managing our Physical and Natural Resources: Successes and Challenges; the 22nd International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the 15th Symposium on Education; the Sixth Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Fourth Presidental History Symposium; the First Symposium on Policy Research; the Eighth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms; the The Doug Lilly Symposium; the Second Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the 14th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere; the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 20th Conference on Hydrology; the 10th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the Second Symposium: Toward a Global Earth Observation System of Systems—Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology; the Symposium on the Public/Private Sector Partnership; the Impacts of 2005's Weather: Major Stories of the Year; and the Second Special Session on Heat Health )
Chairs: Sue Grimmond, King's College; Steven Hanna, Harvard Univ.; Mark Andrews, NOAA/NWS
  12:00 PM
PL1.1
Forum opening
Gregory S. Forbes, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and M. Andrews, C. S. B. Grimmond, and S. R. Hanna

  12:10 PM
PL1.2
How should we compare and evaluate urban land surface models?
Martin Best, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

  12:40 PM
PL1.3
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS: A MIX OF CURSES AND BLESSINGS
Stanley Changnon, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL

1:45 PM-2:45 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Session 2
Gridded Forecasts, Their Production and Use
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Christopher Daly, Oregon State Univ.; Barbara Casati, MSC
  1:45 PM
2.1
Gridded MOS--Techniques, Status, and Plans
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

  2:15 PM
2.2
Evaluation of NDFD and downscaled NCEP forecasts in the Intermountain West
Brandon C. Moore, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID; and V. P. Walden, T. R. Blandford, B. Harshburger, and K. Humes
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (279.8 kB)

 
2.3
Climatological aspects of observed and simulated precipitation entities

  2:45 PM
2.3a
Probabilistic Forecasts Based on "Reforecasts"
Tom Hamill, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Poster Session 1
Probability and Statistics
Location: Exhibit Hall A2 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
 
P1.1
Prediction for drought strength in North China
Wei Fengying, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

 
P1.2
Extensions and alternative formulations of the ROC curve
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona / NSSL, Tucson, AZ; and H. E. Brooks

 
P1.3
Examples of Bayesian probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

 
P1.4
An evaluation of the 10 years of seasonal climate outlooks issued for Wisconsin
Steven J. Meyer, University of Wisconsin, Green Bay, WI; and K. A. Hemauer, K. L. Karl, C. Sonnabend, and C. S. Spannagle

Poster PDF (229.5 kB)

 
P1.5
A closer look into Georgia's precipitation : Summarizing patterns and relationships
Raymond D. Mooring, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

 
P1.6
The impact of weather sensitivity on the economic value of ensemble forecasts
Jing Yuan, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; and T. Simmers and J. McGregor

Poster PDF (526.5 kB)

 
P1.7
Location of heaviest rainfall relative to frontal boundaries during the warm season
Adam B. Smith, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Poster PDF (415.7 kB)


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (M2)

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Session 3
Bayesian Probability Forecasting
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School
  4:00 PM
3.1
Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

  4:15 PM
3.2
Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

  4:30 PM
3.3
Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and R. J. Murnane
  Recorded presentation

 
3.4
Forecast calibration and combination: Bayesian assimilation of seasonal climate predictions

  5:00 PM
3.5
Communicating probability with real-time calibrated forecasts
Patrick G. Tewson, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Sessions end for the day (M)

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 30 January 2006


Holton Symposium Banquet

Tuesday, 31 January 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Tue 31 Jan

8:45 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Session 4
Ensemble Forecasting
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC; Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia
  8:45 AM
4.1
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. Lefaivre, G. Brunet, P. L. Houtekamer, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Y. Pelletier, R. Verret, L. Wilson, B. Cui, G. Pellerin, B. A. Gordon, D. Michaud, E. Olenic, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard
  Recorded presentation

  9:00 AM
4.2
Recent changes in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Q. Liu
  Recorded presentation

  9:15 AM
4.3
Will Perturbing Soil Moisture Improve Warm-Season Ensemble Forecasts? A Proof of Concept
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and C. J. Sutton
  Recorded presentation

  9:30 AM
4.4
Pre-emptive forecasts from an ensemble Kalman filter
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
  Recorded presentation

  9:45 AM
4.5
A Stochastic Parameterization Scheme within NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (198.9 kB)

  10:00 AM
4.6
An implementation of the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter on the NCEP GFS
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. J. Kostelich and G. Gyarmati
  Recorded presentation

  10:15 AM
4.7
An ensemble data assimilation scheme that has mixed Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors
Steven J. Fletcher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (119.8 kB)

  10:30 AM
4.4A
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Exhbits Open (T)

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Plenary Session
Presidential Forum with Boxed Lunch (Lunch will be available for purchase outside the meeting room.)
Hosts: (Joint between the Event Program; the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 15th Symposium on Education; the AMS Forum: Environmental Risk and Impacts on Society: Successes and Challenges; the AMS Forum: Managing our Physical and Natural Resources: Successes and Challenges; the Eighth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms; the The Doug Lilly Symposium; the First Symposium on Policy Research; the 14th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the Air and Waste Management Assoc; the Second Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Sixth Symposium on the Urban Environment; the 14th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere; the 10th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the Second Symposium: Toward a Global Earth Observation System of Systems—Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 20th Conference on Hydrology; the 12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology; the 18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 22nd International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology; the Fourth Presidental History Symposium; the Symposium on the Public/Private Sector Partnership; the The James Holton Symposium; the Third Symposium on Space Weather; and the Impacts of 2005's Weather: Major Stories of the Year )

1:45 PM-4:45 PM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Session 5
Use of Ensembles and Their Postprocesing in Prediction
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC; Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS
  1:45 PM
5.1
The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS web-based graphical forecasts
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (161.6 kB)

  2:00 PM
5.2
Taking into account the rank of a member within the ensemble for probabilistic forecasting based on the best member method
Vincent Fortin, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. C. Favre

Presentation PDF (68.7 kB)

  2:15 PM
5.3
Precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (319.5 kB)

  2:30 PM
5.4
Postprocessing multimodel ensemble data for improved short-range forecasting
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (571.1 kB)

  2:45 PM
5.5
Post processed short range ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (648.7 kB)

  3:00 PM
5.6
On producing probability forecasts
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and R. Zaretzki

  3:15 PM
5.7
Ensemble based probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
  Recorded presentation

  3:30 PM
5.8
Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

  3:45 PM
5.9
Combining spatial and ensemble information for probabilistic weather forecasting
Veronica J. Berrocal, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting
  Recorded presentation

  4:00 PM
5.10
A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging
Seung-Ki Min, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense

  4:15 PM
5.5A
Coffee Break

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 31 January 2006


Sessions end for the day (T)

Wednesday, 1 February 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Wed 1 Feb

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Session 6
Objective Forecasting of Atmospheric Phenomena
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: David Unger, NWS/NCEP/CPC; William R. Burrows, AES
  9:00 AM
6.1
An experiment in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. M. Frederick
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (955.6 kB)

  9:15 AM
6.2
Consensus Probabilistic Forecasting
William Myers, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and M. Pocernich
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (88.2 kB)

  9:30 AM
6.3
Insuring Temporal and Spatial Consistency in Short Range Statistical Weather Forecasts
Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. R. Wiedenfeld

Presentation PDF (145.8 kB)

  9:45 AM
6.4
Utilizing Reanalysis Data in MOS or Perfect Prog
Caren Marzban, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK and University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and S. A. Sandgathe and E. Kalnay

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer (W1)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Session 7
Climate Forecasting
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: James B. Elsner, Florida State University; Cécile Penland, NOAA/CIRES/CDC
  10:30 AM
7.1
Water management in a semi-arid region: an analogue algorithm approach for rainfall seasonal forecasting
Francesco Piani, IBIMET - CNR, Firenze, Italy; and M. Pasqui and G. Maracchi
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (330.1 kB)

  10:45 AM
7.2
Testing slow varying predictors in a Nearest Neighbor model for statistical prediction of South East Asian Monsoon
Viatcheslav V. Tatarskii, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

  11:00 AM
7.3
Regional climate predictability from multiple global GCMs in simulations of the 20th century and multimodel regional forecasts of future climate change
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Tatarskii and P. J. Webster
  Recorded presentation

  11:15 AM
7.4
Making optimal use of climate forecast uncertainty in water resources operations and management
Shaleen Jain, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. Sardeshmukh
  Recorded presentation

  11:30 AM
7.5
Fraser river extended streamflow prediction system
Stanley J. Woodcock, Riverside Technology, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and M. Thiemann, L. E. Brazil, E. Vincent, and A. Pineda

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

  11:45 AM
7.6
A climatic model for predicting seasonal rainfall
Bernardo Barbosa da Silva, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil; and M. A. F. Ferreira, V. D. P. R. D. Silva, and F. D. A. S. D. Sousa

11:00 AM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Exhibits Open (W)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Lunch Break (Cash & Carry available in the Exhibit Hall) (W)

1:45 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Session 8
Extreme Weather and Climate
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Richard W. Katz, NCAR; Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University
  1:45 PM
8.1
Paper 8.1 moved. New paper number P1.7.

  1:46 PM
8.2
The influence of large scale climate variability on winter precipitation extremes over the North America
Xuebin Zhang, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and P. Y. Groisman and F. W. Zwiers
  Recorded presentation

  2:01 PM
8.3
Decision making under uncertainty with an application to wildfire risk
Karen L. Abt, USDA, Resarch Triangle Park, NC; and T. P. Holmes and R. J. Huggett Jr.
  Recorded presentation

  2:16 PM
8.1A
Forecast verification of extremes: Use of extreme value theory
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
  Recorded presentation

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (W2)

3:45 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Sessions end for the day (W)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Joint Session 1
Calibration and Verification of Probabilistic Forecast Products (Joint between 12th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology and the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology; and the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC; Jennifer Mahoney, NOAA/FSL
  4:00 PM
J1.1
An evaluation of impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts
Michael B. Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and A. Takacs

Presentation PDF (261.9 kB)

  4:15 PM
J1.2
An approach for calibration of probabilistic forecasts with limited observational data
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein

  4:30 PM
J1.3
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis
Stacey Seseske, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart

Presentation PDF (125.7 kB)

  4:45 PM
J1.4
Quality Assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Pocernich, J. T. Braid, A. Holmes, and R. E. Bateman

Presentation PDF (581.4 kB)

  5:00 PM
J1.5
Measuring the decision support value of probabilistic forecasts
F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Presentation PDF (41.2 kB)

  5:15 PM
J1.6
An overview of the National Weather Service (NWS) verification for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) using Stats on Demand
Michael Graf, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. K. Kluepfel and A. Rorke

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


Reception in the Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 1 February 2006


AMS Annual Awards Banquet

Thursday, 2 February 2006

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


THUR 2 FEB

8:45 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Session 9
Statistical Climatology
Location: A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Xuebin Zhang, EC; Elise V. Johnson, Iowa State Univ.
  8:45 AM
9.1
Resampling methods for meteorological and climatological data analysis
Alexander Gluhovsky, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. Agee

Presentation PDF (80.3 kB)

  9:00 AM
9.2
Evaluation of an innovation variance methodology for real-time data reduction of satellite data streams
Bradley T. Zavodsky, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. M. Lazarus, R. Ramachandran, and X. Li
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (370.1 kB)

 
9.3
Error propagation through principal components

Presentation PDF (40.4 kB)

  9:30 AM
9.4
Statistical downscaling of precipitation through mixture-model clustering and nonhomogeneous transition probabilities for circulation and precipitation patterns
Mathieu R. Vrac, Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL; and M. Stein and K. Hayhoe
  Recorded presentation

  9:45 AM
9.5
A new weather generator based on spectral properties of surface air temperatures
J.T. Schoof, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. Arguez, J. Brolley, and J. J. O'Brien
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (186.1 kB)

  10:00 AM
9.6
Spatial regression as a technique for assessing the quality of temperature data
Nathaniel Guttman, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Presentation PDF (98.3 kB)

  10:15 AM
9.7
Radar-to-gauge comparison of precipitation totals: implications for quality control
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and M. J. Menne
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (952.1 kB)

  10:30 AM
9.8
Estimating precipitation normals for USCRN stations
Bomin Sun, STG, Inc., Asheville, NC; and T. C. Peterson
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (619.7 kB)

  10:45 AM
9.9
Diagnosing the Distribution of Seasonal Mean Precipitation
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. A. Smith
  Recorded presentation

  11:00 AM
9.10
Assessing the long-term representativeness of short wind records
Karsten Shein, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC

Presentation PDF (230.9 kB)

  11:15 AM
9.5A
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

11:00 AM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Exhibits Open (Th)

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Lunch Break (Cash & Carry available in the Exhibit Hall) (Th)

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Registration Desk Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Coffee Break in the Exhibit Hall and AMS IPOD Raffle (Th2)

4:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Exhibit Close

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Conference Ends

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 2 February 2006


Lilly Symposium Banquet
« Collapse View