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Calibration and Verification of Probabilistic Forecast Products (Joint between 12th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology and the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics)

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Wednesday, 1 February 2006: 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Hosts: (Joint between the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology )
Cochairs:  Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK and Jennifer Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO
Papers:
  4:00 PM
J1.1
An evaluation of impacts of grid resolution on the verification of aviation weather forecasts
Michael B. Chapman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and A. Takacs

Presentation PDF (261.9 kB)

  4:15 PM
J1.2
An approach for calibration of probabilistic forecasts with limited observational data
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. C. Bernstein

  4:30 PM
J1.3
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis
Stacey Seseske, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart

Presentation PDF (125.7 kB)

  4:45 PM
J1.4
Quality Assessment of the National Ceiling and Visibility Analysis Product
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Pocernich, J. T. Braid, A. Holmes, and R. E. Bateman

Presentation PDF (581.4 kB)

  5:00 PM
J1.5
Measuring the decision support value of probabilistic forecasts
F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Presentation PDF (41.2 kB)

  5:15 PM
J1.6
An overview of the National Weather Service (NWS) verification for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) using Stats on Demand
Michael Graf, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and C. K. Kluepfel and A. Rorke

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