5
Use of Ensembles and Their Postprocesing in Prediction

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Tuesday, 31 January 2006: 1:45 PM-4:45 PM
A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs:  Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO and Steven A. Amburn, National Weather Service, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK
Papers:
  1:45 PM
5.1
The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles and their real-time implementation within NWS web-based graphical forecasts
Andrew V. Durante, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart, A. I. Watson, R. H. Grumm, and W. Drag
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (161.6 kB)

  2:00 PM
5.2
Taking into account the rank of a member within the ensemble for probabilistic forecasting based on the best member method
Vincent Fortin, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and A. C. Favre

Presentation PDF (68.7 kB)

  2:15 PM
5.3
Precipitation forecasts of the Canadian ensemble prediction system
Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (319.5 kB)

  2:30 PM
5.4
Postprocessing multimodel ensemble data for improved short-range forecasting
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (571.1 kB)

  2:45 PM
5.5
Post processed short range ensemble forecasts of severe convective storms
David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (648.7 kB)

  3:00 PM
5.6
On producing probability forecasts
William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY; and R. Zaretzki

  3:15 PM
5.7
Ensemble based probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts
Brian Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC
  Recorded presentation

  3:30 PM
5.8
Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods in the Lorenz '96 setting
Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

  3:45 PM
5.9
Combining spatial and ensemble information for probabilistic weather forecasting
Veronica J. Berrocal, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. E. Raftery and T. Gneiting
  Recorded presentation

  4:00 PM
5.10
A Bayesian approach to climate model evaluation and multi-model averaging
Seung-Ki Min, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; and A. Hense

  4:15 PM
5.5A
Coffee Break

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