1
Forecast Evaluation

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Monday, 30 January 2006: 9:00 AM-11:45 AM
A304 (Georgia World Congress Center)
Host: 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs:  Barbara G. Brown, Ral, NCAR, Boulder, CO and Marina M. Timofeyeva, Training Division, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
Papers:
  9:00 AM
1.1
The skill of forecasting relatively isolated severe thunderstorm events
Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (75.8 kB)

  9:15 AM
1.2
Real time forecast verification tools at The Weather Channel, Atlanta GA
Jeral G. Estupiñán, The Weather Channel & Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval, P. M. Rouse, D. M. Long, B. Rose, R. Lucksinger, and C. Peters
  Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (387.7 kB)

  9:30 AM
1.3
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and F. Balabdaoui and A. E. Raftery
  Recorded presentation

  9:45 AM
1.4
Overestimating Forecast Skill Through Improper Application of Verification Metrics: Simpson's Paradox in Meteorology
Thomas M. Hamill, Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Juras

  10:00 AM
1.5
Paper 1.5 moved. New paper number 8.1A

  10:01 AM
1.6
Extending ROC analysis to the multicategory forecast problem
Matthew S. Wandishin, Univ. of Arizona and NSSL, Norman, OK ; and S. L. Mullen
  Recorded presentation

  10:16 AM
1.7
Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images
Thomas C.M. Lee, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. G. Brown, and R. G. Bullock
  Recorded presentation

  10:31 AM
1.8
Bayesian Verification Measures for Forecasts of Continuous Predictands
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA

  10:46 AM
1.9
Application of Evidence Theory to Quantify Uncertainty in Forecast of Hurricane Path
Svetlana V. Poroseva, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Letschert and M. Y. Hussaini

Presentation PDF (479.0 kB)

  11:01 AM
1.10
A New Spatial Scale Decomposition of the Brier Score for the Verification of Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts
Barbara Casati, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Presentation PDF (825.0 kB)

  11:16 AM
1.6A
Coffee Break in Meeting Room Foyer

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