21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Tuesday, 13 August 2002: 9:00 AM
Forecast guidance from NCEP's high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model
Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers, Z. Janjic, H. Chuang, and G. DiMego
Systematic experimental forecasts from NCEP's nonhydrostatic mesoscale model have been initiated recently. These forecasts are being generated over six subdomains nested within the domain of the operational 12 km Eta Model which provides the initial and boundary conditions. Three of the nests cover the western, central, and eastern parts of the CONUS. Another nest covers Alaska and two smaller nests cover Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Each subdomain uses 8 km gridpoint spacing except Alaska's which uses 10 km. All the nests have 60 layers in the vertical. The runtimes are: Alaska at 00Z, the western CONUS nest at 06Z, the central nest at 12Z, the eastern nest at 18Z, the Hawaiian nest at 00Z and 12Z, and the Puerto Rican nest at 06Z and 18Z. Comparisons will be made between the nonhydrostatic model forecasts and those of the Eta Model. The Eta forecasts include those of the operational 12 km runs as well as those executed at 10km gridpoint spacing over identical nested subdomains as described above (12 km for Alaska). The comparisons will consist of both objective statistics and specific forecast examples. A description will also be given of a group of 26 grids with 4 km resolution covering the CONUS and other regions mentioned above. Forecasts from the nonhydrostatic model will not run regularly on these domains but instead will be generated when special circumstances warrant them.

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