Program: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction (21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction)

19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

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Sunday, 11 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 11 August 2002

SUN 11 AUG

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 11 August 2002

CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

Monday, 12 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

MON 12 AUG

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, 16 AUGUST

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

8:15 AM-8:15 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Opening Remarks

Organizer: Edward L Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

8:30 AM-9:15 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Joint Session 1

Joint Keynote Address (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

8:30 AM

J1.1

Forecasting severe local storms...past, present, and future

Robert H. Johns, Retired severe local storms forecaster, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss

9:15 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Joint Session 2

Joint Keynote Address II (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

9:15 AM

J2.1

Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just

Poster PDF (280.1 kB)

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

COFFEE BREAK

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Case Studies I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

10:30 AM

1.1

An analysis of the record-breaking 9–10 November 1996 rainfall in the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys

J. R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Durnford

Poster PDF (36.9 kB)

10:45 AM

1.2

Common characteristics of heavy banded snowfall events in the central United States

James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves

11:00 AM

1.3

Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases

Daniel St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, South Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson

11:15 AM

1.4

An examination of the variability of snowfall associated with terrain-induced circulations in central New Mexico using the workstation ETA and MM5 models

Deirdre Kann, NOAA/NWS, Albuquerque, NM; and E. Ritchie

Poster PDF (309.8 kB)

11:30 AM

1.5

An Analysis of MM5 Performance for Four Major Snowstorms over the Korean Peninsula

Peter B. Roohr, CIRES/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. Brooks

Poster PDF (1013.4 kB)

11:44 AM

1.6

Paper Moved to session 10, new paper number 10.2a

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

LUNCH BREAK

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Weather Briefing

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Case Studies II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:

1:30 PM

2.1

Sensitivity of Model Thunderstorms to Modifications to the Environmental Conditions by a nearby Thunderstorm in the Prediction of 2000 Fort Worth Tornado Case

Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (496.8 kB)

1:45 PM

2.2

Impact of adjustments in the Kain-Fritsch Convective Scheme on QPF of Elevated Convection

Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., R. W. Arritt, and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (24.1 kB)

2:00 PM

2.3

Life cycle differences between consecutive rapidly deepening continental cyclones

Steven G. Decker, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

2:15 PM

2.4

Local mesoscale models for nowcasting Space Shuttle landing weather

Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram and R. Lafosse

Poster PDF (53.0 kB)

2:30 PM

2.5

A potential vorticity view of Southern Hemisphere blocking

Stewart C. R. Allen, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and D. J. Karoly

Poster PDF (206.8 kB)

2:45 PM

2.6

Mesoscale Forecasting of the EM Propagation Environment and Dust Storms in the Persian Gulf

Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Liu, D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, and S. D. Burk

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Coffee Break with the Poster Session

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Poster Session 1

Weather Analysis, Forecasting and Numerical Prediction

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P1.1

Mesoscale Predictability Estimated through Explicit Simulation of Moist Baroclinic Waves

Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and F. Zhang

Poster PDF (662.9 kB)

P1.2

Moist NWP equations and missing terms

Terry Davies, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and M. Diamantakis and A. J. Malcolm

Poster PDF (200.0 kB)

P1.3

An Exact Anelastic Beltrami–Flow Solution for use on model validation

Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. P. Richardson

P1.4

The impact of assimilating AVHRR–derived humidity on high latitude MM5 forecasts

Xingang Fan, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley

Poster PDF (159.7 kB)

P1.5

Performance of the global shallow water model with double Fourier series on the interaction and movement of typhoon-scale vortices

Hyeong Bin Cheong, Pukyong National University, Pusan, Korea; and I. H. Kwon, M. J. Lee, and M. K. Kang

P1.6

Progresses and future plans for OSSE/NPOESS

Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, T. J. Kleespies, J. Terry, H. Sun, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, R. Atlas, M. D. Goldberg, J. G. Yoe, W. E. Baker, C. S. Velden, W. Wolf, S. C. Bloom, G. Brin, and C. O'Handley

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2002/nwp15.masutani.P1_6.pdf

Poster PDF (100.9 kB)

P1.7

Harman and Harmpred: Web-Based Program to analyze Tidal Constituents and Tidal Forcasts for the Texas Coast

Aimee L. Mostella, Texas A&M University and Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and S. Duff and P. R. Michaud

Poster PDF (33.7 kB)

P1.8

Planetary and Synoptic Scale Interactions in Southeast Pacific Blocking Using Potential Vorticity Diagnostics

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland

Poster PDF (387.7 kB)

P1.9

Mesoscale ensemble prediction of winter precipitation in a severe winter storm

Brian F. Jewett, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, R. M. Rauber, J. Grim, L. Barker, and D. Smith

Poster PDF (242.9 kB)

P1.10

Improved terrain analysis for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^tm) and its impact to the forecast performance

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt and J. E. Nachamkin

Poster PDF (39.1 kB)

P1.11

Climatology of warm season 500 hPa cutoff cyclones and a case study diagnosis of 14—17 July 2000

Matthew J. Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and K. D. LaPenta

P1.12

An Improved Soil-Vegetation Physics for COAMPS^TM

Kang Nai, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, Q. Xu, K. D. Sashegyi, and T. R. Holt

Poster PDF (67.5 kB)

P1.13

A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach to Geopotential Prediction Using Equivalent Barotropic Model

Alireza D. Shaneh, University of Tehran, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Bidokhti, C. Lucas, and M. Teshnehlab

P1.14

A global 500 hPa cutoff cyclone climatology: 1953–1999

Brandon A. Smith, SUNY, Albany, New York; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. St. Jean

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

P1.15

A Forecast Overview of the 26 January 1996 Blizzard Across Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois Using Non-Standard Forecast Techniques

Todd E. Holsten, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and T. P. Hendricks

P1.16

Paper Move to Joint Poster Session JP2, New Paper number JP2.9

4:30 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Statistical Evaluation I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron

Papers:

4:30 PM

3.1

Operational models and performance evaluation at Fleet Numerical

Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman, J. Lerner, and M. Swenson

Poster PDF (34.8 kB)

4:45 PM

3.2

Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin

Poster PDF (129.5 kB)

5:00 PM

3.3

Objective verification of the MM5 over the Eastern U.S.: comparison with the NCEP Eta and impact of high resolution

Biran A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

Poster PDF (960.0 kB)

5:14 PM

3.4

Paper Moved to Session 5, New paper number 5.6a

5:15 PM

3.5

Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model

Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and D. M. Schultz

Poster PDF (819.0 kB)

5:30 PM

3.6

Updateable model output statistics: an effective tool for evaluation of NWP forecasts

Marcel Vallée, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Poster PDF (80.6 kB)

5:45 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

sessions end for the day

8:00 PM-9:00 PM: Monday, 12 August 2002

Weather Event Simulator Workshop

Tuesday, 13 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

TUE 13 AUG

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Joint Session 3

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: Robert H. Johns, NOAA/NSSL/SPC

Papers:

8:00 AM

J3.1

A Structured Process for Prediction of Convection Associated with Split Cold Fronts

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (861.3 kB)

8:15 AM

J3.2

Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (166.3 kB)

8:30 AM

J3.3

Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results

Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, and S. K. Jones

Poster PDF (92.3 kB)

8:45 AM

J3.4

Automated Gridded Forecast Guidance for Thunderstorms and Severe Local Storms Based on the Eta Model

Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop

Poster PDF (295.3 kB)

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Joint Session 4

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

9:00 AM

J4.1

Forecast guidance from NCEP's high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model

Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers, Z. Janjic, H. Chuang, and G. DiMego

9:15 AM

J4.2

Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations

John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, G. W. Carbin, M. P. Kay, and L. Brown

Poster PDF (94.7 kB)

9:30 AM

J4.3

Analysis of Mesoscale Vertical Circulations using WSR-88D VAD and Wind Profiler Data

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (469.7 kB)

9:45 AM

J4.4

Summer storm initiation and evolution in central Arizona

Pamela L. MacKeen, CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Schultz

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~mackeen/radarclimo.html

Poster PDF (247.7 kB)

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Coffee Break

10:30 AM-11:15 AM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Joint Session 5

The Use of Mesoscale models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

10:30 AM

J5.1

A Preliminary Examination of the Performance of Several Mesoscale Models for Convective Forecasting During IHOP

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. Shaw, M. P. Kay, J. M. Brown, P. Janish, and R. Schneider

10:45 AM

J5.2

Parameterization of convection at mesoscale resolution

James M. Done, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. A. Clark, G. C. Craig, M. E. B. Gray, and S. L. Gray

Poster PDF (52.2 kB)

11:00 AM

J5.3

Impact of GPS water vapor data on RUC severe weather forecasts

Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO and NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and B. Schwartz

Poster PDF (239.4 kB)

11:15 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Joint Session 6

The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

11:15 AM

J6.1

Mesoscale modeling at WFO Jacksonville: Five years of trying to get Florida severe weather right

Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL

11:30 AM

J6.2

Evaluation of a rapidly relocatable high-resolution numerical model for meteorological nowcasting based on MM5

Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, A. M. Gibbs, A. J. Schroeder, and G. K. Hunter

Poster PDF (264.5 kB)

11:45 AM

J6.3

Recent Advances in Diabatic Initialization of a Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model

Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (584.1 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

LUNCH BREAK

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Weather Briefing

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Phenomenological Forecasting I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR

Papers:

1:30 PM

4A.1

An Analysis of the Incorporation of Lightning into the Nowcasting of Enhanced Frozen Precipitation

Peter B. Roohr, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar

Poster PDF (195.1 kB)

1:45 PM

4A.2

Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm Assessment

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and K. Price and D. Sims

Poster PDF (130.2 kB)

2:00 PM

4A.3

Short-Term Probabilistic forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility utilizing high-Frequency surface observations

Stephen M. Leyton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (139.5 kB)

2:15 PM

4A.4

Comparing Weather Hazards Using the BFM and MM5

Jeffrey E. Passner, Army Reseach Labatory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

2:30 PM

4A.5

TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada and Results

Jacques Montpetit, Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. Wilson, and R. Verret

Poster PDF (85.2 kB)

2:45 PM

4A.6

Signatures of Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain, their Accurate Locations From AMSU-B Data onboard NOAA Satellite

Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Pune, Pune, Maharshtra, India; and P. N. Sen, D. M. Puranik, and R. N. Karekar

Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Modeling

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron

Papers:

1:30 PM

4B.1

Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: 4DVar results

N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell and J. Sun

Poster PDF (191.8 kB)

1:45 PM

4B.2

Estimating environmental soundings for use in convective-scale NWP

Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock

2:00 PM

4B.3

Real-time Storm-scale Forecast Support for IHOP 2002 at CAPS

Ming Xue, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and E. Kemp

2:15 PM

4B.4

Sensitivity study on nudging parameters for a mesoscale FDDA system

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, C. A. Davis, and T. T. Warner

Poster PDF (344.9 kB)

2:30 PM

4B.5

Event-based verification of operational mesoscale NWP

Graham A. Mills, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

2:45 PM

4B.6

A Framework for Globalization of Regional Atmospheric Models: Dry Core and Quasi-Uniform (QU) Grids

Miodrag Rancic, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Zhang

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSION

3:00 PM-4:30 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Joint Poster Session 1

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19 WAF/15 NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

JP1.1

Weather Event Simulator Best Practices

John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. M. Quoetone, E. Page, and M. A. Magsig

Poster PDF (117.0 kB)

JP1.2

Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques

Roger Edwards, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (122.2 kB)

JP1.3

Anticipating and monitoring supercell motion for severe weather operations

Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. J. Bunkers

Poster PDF (182.7 kB)

JP1.4

Paper has been moved to SLS session 16, new paper number 16.7A

JP1.5

Synoptic and mesoscale patterns associated with violent tornadoes across separate geographic regions of the United States: part II—upper-level characteristics

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and N. Dipasquale and R. Wynne

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/html/Violenttornadoes.html

Poster PDF (3.8 MB)

JP1.6

Lightning nowcasts using WSR-88D derived products and AWIPS

Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and R. Lafosse and T. D. Oram

Poster PDF (23.1 kB)

JP1.7

Enhancements to a new convective sounding analysis program for AWIPS

Xuechao Yu, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; and M. A. Magsig and M. Bunkers

Poster PDF (449.6 kB)

JP1.8

Forecasting extreme rainfall leading to flash flood events in the UK

Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. G. Collier and W. Hand

Poster PDF (164.7 kB)

JP1.9

An Assessment of 3-and 6-h RUC CAPE forecasts

Barry Schwartz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin

JP1.10

Probabilistic forecasts of severe local storms in the 0–3 hour timeframe from an advective-statistical technique

David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, C. Mello, and J. Dai

Poster PDF (160.1 kB)

JP1.11

Visually enhanced composite charts for severe weather forecasting and real-time diagnosis

Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Coraopolis, PA

Joint Poster Session 2

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP) new

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Papers:

JP2.1

Observed and Modeled Structure of the Subtropical Sea Breeze

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

JP2.2

NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast of the 6—7 January 2002 Northeast Snowstorm: Role of initial conditions

William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt

http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases

Poster PDF (277.7 kB)

JP2.3

Late November 2001 Winter Precipitation Event Over South Central Texas

Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/wx/nov282001/nov28.htm

Poster PDF (27.4 kB)

JP2.4

Verification of MM5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes for East Asia

Dean James Carter, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

JP2.5

ENSO-based forecasting of seasonal tropical cyclone trends from historical analyses of genesis and OLR oscillations

Colin K. Kennedy, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

Poster PDF (61.6 kB)

JP2.6

Analysis of mesoscale banded features in the 5–6 February 2001 New England snowstorm

David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. S. W. Horwood

Poster PDF (417.3 kB)

JP2.7

The use of a phase shifted verification score to evaluate warm season QPF

Steven L. Aves, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., E. Kalnay, and M. Miller

JP2.8

COAMPS^TM Forecasting of Land–falling Fronts

Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

JP2.9

Forecaster training on NWP through case examples (Formerly paper p1.16)

Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET at NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Bua

http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/

Poster PDF (751.6 kB)

Joint Poster Session 3

The use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

JP3.1

An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center

Phillip D. Bothwell, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Hart and R. L. Thompson

Poster PDF (113.6 kB)

JP3.2

Evaluation of Eta Model Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (194.3 kB)

JP3.3

The Use of the GEM Forecast Model at very high resolution during ELBOW 2001

Patrick King, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Murphy, A. Erfani, and D. Sills

Poster PDF (659.6 kB)

Joint Poster Session 4

The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Papers:

JP4.1

Numerical forecast simulations of precipitation events in complex terrain

J. Wang, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. Capehart, and R. D. Farley

JP4.2

Mesoscale Modeling of Significant Severe Weather and Flash Flood Events at WFO Jackson, MS

Alan Gerard, NOAA/NWS, Jackson, MS; and S. Listemaa

Poster PDF (429.2 kB)

JP4.3

Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on the Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rainfall in Korea

Hee-Dong Yoo, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, K. Brewster, S. Y. Lee, and C. H. Cho

Poster PDF (121.1 kB)

JP4.4

Using 4d-VAR to move a simulated hurricane in a mesoscale model

Ross N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. M. Henderson and S. M. Leidner

Poster PDF (129.8 kB)

JP4.5

Comparison of Meso Eta Wind Forecasts with TCOON Measurements along the Coast of Texas

Jeremy Alan Stearns, Texas A&M University, Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot, A. R. Patrick, P. Michaud, and W. G. Collins

Poster PDF (218.8 kB)

JP4.6

A Variational Method for Dual-Doppler Radar Retrievals of Wind and Thermodynamic Fields

Shun Liu, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Qiu and Q. Xu

Poster PDF (200.3 kB)

JP4.7

A statistical evaluation of forecasting errors in numerical models for weather prediction of severe rainfalls events in Venezuelan coasts

Jaime E. Guerra, Universidad Nacional Experimental Maritima del Caribe, Estado Vargas, Venezuela; and I. Garcia, J. Jorge, and G. Jaimes

JP4.8

CEDRIC as a software tool for analyzing WRF model output

L. Jay Miller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Fredrick and C. A. Davis

4:30 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Mesoscale Processes and Convection

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel

Papers:

4:30 PM

5.1

The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay

Poster PDF (228.5 kB)

4:45 PM

5.2

Quantitative Precipitation in Simulated Deep Convection: Sensitivity to the Hail/Graupel Category

Matthew S. Gilmore, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Straka and E. N. Rasmussen

Poster PDF (689.0 kB)

5:00 PM

5.3

Quality control problems for VAD Winds and NEXRAD Level-II winds in the presence of migrating birds

Li Bi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, P. Zhang, and Q. Xu

5:15 PM

5.4

Forecast uses of terminal doppler weather radar (TDWR) data

Steven M. Zubrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Sterling, VA

Poster PDF (71.1 kB)

5:30 PM

5.5

Large–scale Environment and diurnal cycle of u.s. warm season precipitation episodes

D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone, C. A. Davis, and J. D. Tuttle

Poster PDF (424.6 kB)

5:44 PM

5.6

paper moved to session 12, New paper number 12.6

5:45 PM

5.6a

Statistical-Dynamical Forecasts of Warm Season Rainfall Over North America (Formerly Paper 3.4)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, R. E. Carbone, K. W. Manning, and J. Tuttle

Poster PDF (408.7 kB)

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Sessions End for the day

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Evening Video/Slide Presentation

Wednesday, 14 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

WED 14 AUG

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Winter Weather and Climatological Studies

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John R. Gyakum, McGill University

Papers:

8:00 AM

6.1

Establishing a 10 year climatology of 101.6 mm (4 inch) rainfall days, part I

Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart

8:15 AM

6.2

Can possible heavy rainfall events be identified by comparing various parameters to the climatological norms?

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. W. Junker, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (111.3 kB)

8:30 AM

6.3

A Northeast Snowstorm Impact Scale

Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and L. W. Uccellini

8:45 AM

6.4

A study of heavy precipitation occurring in continental and marine environments

John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Sisson, G. Toth, P. Lewis, and J. K. Parker

9:00 AM

6.5

A climatological and composite study of cold season banded precipitation in the northeast United States

David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher

Poster PDF (479.7 kB)

9:15 AM

6.6

Large-scale circulation anomaly indices in relation to cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States

David Groenert, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. H. Grumm

Poster PDF (467.3 kB)

9:30 AM

6.7

Northern Hemisphere warming: A thickness climatology

Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (802.1 kB)

9:45 AM

6.8

The effects of diabatic redistribution of potential vorticity on cold frontal rainbands and cold front propagation

Heather Dawn Reeves, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

COFFEE BREAK

10:30 AM-11:45 AM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Tropical Cyclones

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC

Papers:

10:30 AM

7A.1

2001 COAMPS^TM tropical cyclone verification in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and B. J. Strahl

Poster PDF (47.2 kB)

10:45 AM

7A.2

An examination of the mesoscale structure associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Agnes (1972)

Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

11:00 AM

7A.3

Quantitative measurements of extratropical transition in the Atlantic Basin

Joshua K. Darr, SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (486.9 kB)

11:14 AM

7A.4

Paper moved to session 10, New paper number 10.4a

11:15 AM

7A.5

Nonclassical tropopause folding

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. J. Dickinson and E. H. Atallah

Poster PDF (3.3 MB)

11:30 AM

7A.6

Importance of Tropical easterly waves to the development of surges over the Gulf of California

David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Statistical Evaluation II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Jason E. Nachamkin, FNMOC

Papers:

10:30 AM

7B.1

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^tm)

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin, J. M. Schmidt, and C. S. Liou

http://

Poster PDF (69.3 kB)

10:45 AM

7B.2

Forecast Verification Using Meteorological Event Composites

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA

Poster PDF (128.7 kB)

11:00 AM

7B.3

Development of an “events-oriented” approach to forecast verification

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (62.1 kB)

11:15 AM

7B.4

A statistical expression for the estimation of MCS precipitation efficiency

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. N. Allen, R. Scofield, A. Gruber, and R. Kuligowski

Poster PDF (238.7 kB)

11:30 AM

7B.5

A Benchmark Simulation for Testing Moist Nonhydrostatic Numerical Model Formulations

George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (170.5 kB)

11:45 AM

7B.6

Regional Verification of Polar MM5 over Alaska

William Courtemanche, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and M. K. Walters

Poster PDF (495.7 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

LUNCH BREAK

1:00 PM-1:20 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Weather Briefing

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Phenomenological Forecasting II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:

1:30 PM

8.1

Numerical Forecasts of freezing rain: Physical processes and Model biases

Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. B. Ek and K. Keeter

Poster PDF (618.7 kB)

1:45 PM

8.2

Verification of real-time non-hydrostatic Eta model forecasts over Southern New England

Marina Tsidulko, UCAR Visiting Scientist and NOAA/National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD; and J. G. W. Kelley

http://ocean1.ncd.noaa.gov/NBLAPS/

Poster PDF (804.5 kB)

2:00 PM

8.3

Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm Assessment

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and C. Fidalgo and D. Sims

Poster PDF (128.2 kB)

2:15 PM

8.4

An Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Eta Surface Temperature Forecasts through the Gridded Forecast Editor

Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK

Poster PDF (106.1 kB)

2:30 PM

8.5

Contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCSs in 10 km Eta simulations using two convective schemes

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

2:45 PM

8.6

Characteristics of the Nocturnal Land Breeze over the Kennedy Space Center, Florida

Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Flight Center and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco and D. A. Short

Poster PDF (171.2 kB)

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Coffee Break

3:30 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

WRF Model Development

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR

Papers:

3:30 PM

9.1

A semi-Lagrangian non-hydrostatic model employing a hybrid vertical coordinate

R. James Purser, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. K. Kar, S. Gopalakrishnan, and T. Fujita

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

3:45 PM

9.2

Testing and Verification of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and W. Wang

Poster PDF (150.7 kB)

4:00 PM

9.3

WRF model evaluation at the SPC and NSSL

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and S. J. Weiss

Poster PDF (150.4 kB)

4:15 PM

9.4

Verification of IHOP model runs of MM5 and WRF with diabatic initialization

Paul Schultz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (479.1 kB)

4:30 PM

9.5

The effects of subgrid model mixing and numerical filtering in simulations of mesoscale convective systems

Tetsuya Takemi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/individual/skamarock/takemi.pdf

Poster PDF (206.8 kB)

4:45 PM

9.6

Preliminary results from 4 km explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and J. B. Klemp

5:00 PM

9.7

A Nonhydrostatic Vertical-Slice Model in a Hybrid Sigma-Theta Coordinate

Sajal K. Kar, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (205.8 kB)

5:15 PM

9.8

Screen-height Observations Assimilated in an Evolving 1-D PBL with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

http://

Poster PDF (167.0 kB)

5:30 PM

9.9

A case study comparison of 10-km RUCWRF and RUC model forecasts from the IHOP experiment

Stanley Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. L. Lee, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, and B. L. Shaw

Poster PDF (225.4 kB)

5:45 PM

9.10

Preliminary comparisons of tropical cyclone simulations with the GFDL and WRF Models

David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and R. E. Tuleya

Poster PDF (164.8 kB)

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 14 August 2002

Fiesta

Sessions end for the day

Thursday, 15 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

THUR 15 AUG

8:00 AM-9:58 AM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Data Assimilation I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC

Papers:

8:00 AM

10.1

Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model

Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Jin, Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego

10.2

Experiments of high-density data in the NCEP Eta Data Assimilation System: NEXRAD radial velocity and satellite radiance data

8:15 AM

10.3

Background Error Covariance Functions for Radar Wind Analysis

Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Gong

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

10.4

Ensemble data assimilation as an SDVR technique

8:30 AM

10.5

Rapid-scan single-Doppler velocity retrieval of a thunderstorm outflow

Alan Shapiro, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Robinson and J. Wurman

8:45 AM

10.6

Characterising the Spatial Structure of Observation Errors in Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Data Assimilation

Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Saarinen, J. N. Thépaut, and G. Kelly

Poster PDF (261.1 kB)

9:00 AM

10.7

Impacts of Initial Analyses and Observations on the Convective-Scale Data Assimilation with an Ensemble-Kalman Filter

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and J. Sun

Poster PDF (337.3 kB)

9:15 AM

10.8

High-resolution RUC forecasts for PACJET: Real-time NWS guidance and retrospective data impact tests

Steve Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. S. Velden, J. E. Burks, and L. B. Nance

Poster PDF (246.2 kB)

9:30 AM

10.2a

Impact of Polar Cloud Track Winds from MODIS on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts (formerly Paper number 1.6)

Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and J. N. Thépaut, J. Key, D. Santek, and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (854.9 kB)

9:45 AM

10.4a

The Role of Subsynoptic Processes in Synoptic-scale Extratropical Cyclone Development (Formerly Paper 7a.4)

Kenneth E. Parsons, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and P. J. Smith

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

COFFEE BREAK

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Ensembles

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

10:30 AM

11.1

An Examination of Regional Ensemble Forecasting Techniques during three Winter Storms

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (81.2 kB)

10:45 AM

11.2

Flow Dependent Background Error Covariance and Mesoscale Predictability Estimation through Ensemble Forecasting

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Ham and A. Aksoy

Poster PDF (671.0 kB)

11:00 AM

11.3

Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts

Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Stensrud and M. Xue

Poster PDF (404.4 kB)

11:15 AM

11.4

Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Tropical and Mid-latitude Cyclones

Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett, B. Cui, and H. Liu

Poster PDF (330.5 kB)

11:30 AM

11.5

Results of using the PSU shallow convection scheme in an ensemble mode: Effects on mass flux profiles and thermodynamic tendencies

Ricardo C. Muñoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng

Poster PDF (201.3 kB)

11:45 AM

11.6

Using adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities to characterize forecast uncertainty

Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist and G. A. Postel

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (518.7 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

LUNCH BREAK

1:00 PM-1:20 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Weather Briefing

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Data Assimilation II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

1:30 PM

12.1

A comparison between the 4D-Var and the ensemble filter techniques for radar data assimilation

A. H. Caya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (315.9 kB)

1:45 PM

12.2

Anisotropic background error correlations in a 3D-var system

M. S. F. V. De Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, J. C. Derber, and G. DiMego

Poster PDF (336.3 kB)

2:00 PM

12.3

Cloud/hydrometeor initialization in the 20-km RUC Using radar and GOES data

Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (245.2 kB)

2:15 PM

12.4

New Development of a 3dvar system for a Nonhydrostatic NWP Model

Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (199.4 kB)

2:30 PM

12.5

A new version of RUC 3DVAR

Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (24.7 kB)

2:45 PM

12.6

Impact Assesment of a Doppler Wind Lidar for OSSE/NPOESS (Formerly Paper 5.6)

Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, J. Terry, R. Atlas, T. J. Kleespies, and H. Sun

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2002/nwp15.masutani.12_6.pdf

Poster PDF (94.7 kB)

3:30 PM-5:45 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

High Resolution Prediction

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

3:30 PM

13.1

The Met Office's new global and mesoscale NWP models

Glenn T. Greed, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Milton, I. Culverwell, D. Cameron, and D. Li

Poster PDF (115.3 kB)

3:45 PM

13.2

High winds and high resolution at the Met Office

Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

Poster PDF (76.5 kB)

4:00 PM

13.3

Development of a nonhydrostatic model for very short-range forecasting at JMA

Tsukasa Fujita, Japan Meteorological Agency, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Saito, Y. Yamada, J. I. Ishida, M. Narita, S. Goto, C. Muroi, T. Kato, and H. Eito

Poster PDF (42.2 kB)

4:15 PM

13.4

A High Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Opal (1995)

Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Wilhelmson

http://pampa.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~romine/opal.html

Poster PDF (280.1 kB)

4:30 PM

13.5

Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Allison (2001)

Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Poster PDF (23.4 kB)

4:45 PM

13.6

Uncertainty in numerical mesoscale modeling by the use of a topography defined via map projections

Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico

Poster PDF (128.9 kB)

5:00 PM

13.7

Use of the NCEP MesoEta Data in a Water Level Predicting Neural Network

Andrew R. Patrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and W. G. Collins, P. E. Tissot, A. Drikitis, J. Stearns, P. R. Michaud, and D. T. Cox

Poster PDF (146.1 kB)

5:15 PM

13.8

An exploration of several techniques to try to improve warm season rainfall forecasts in the Upper Midwest

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and B. R. Temeyer

5:30 PM

13.9

Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: Ensemble Kalman filter results

David Dowell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, L. Wicker, C. Snyder, B. Skamarock, and A. Crook

Poster PDF (874.0 kB)

5:45 PM-5:45 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Sessions end for the day

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Thursday, 15 August 2002

Evening Video/Slide Presentation

Friday, 16 August 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Friday, 16 August 2002

FRI 16 AUG

8:00 AM-9:44 AM: Friday, 16 August 2002

Model Improvements

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

8:00 AM

14.1

The 20-km RUC in operations

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, B. E. Schwartz, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, D. Kim, G. A. Grell, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin

Poster PDF (282.1 kB)

8:15 AM

14.2

Wind and Temperature Retrieval From TOMS Data for Weather Analysis and Prediction

Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and X. Zou

8:30 AM

14.3

A Decade + of the Eta Performance, including that beyond Two Days: Any Lessons for the Road Ahead?

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, K. Brill, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

8:45 AM

14.4

Adaptation of the Canadian Updateable Model Output System to forecasting marine winds on the great lakes Great Lakes