The NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for issuing all landing forecasts for Space Shuttle missions. These landing forecasts include emergency landing forecasts during launch for Kennedy Space Center in Florida and abort landing sites in Spain and Africa as well as the planned end-of-mission landing forecasts for Kennedy Space Center. These landing nowcasts require accurate predictions of unique Shuttle Impact Variables (SIVs) over time periods ranging from 25 to 90 minutes. The specific SIVs are documented in the Space Shuttle weather-related flight rules. Some of the unique SIVs include mixed phase clouds at particular temperatures, detached thunderstorm anvil clouds, and small rain showers within 10 nautical miles of the Shuttle’s landing approach paths.

SMG has been implementing a suite of mesoscale models to provide the forecasters with additional diagnostic and prognostic information for issuing these forecasts. A wealth of observed weather data exists surrounding the Kennedy Space Center. The 45th Space Wing at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station operates a network of wind towers and 915 MHz wind profilers. KSC operates a 50 MHz Doppler radar wind profiler. Four WSR-88D weather radars provide coverage of portions of the SMG forecast area in addition to visible and infrared satellite imagery. In order to provide the forecaster with gridded sets of SIVs, the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) has been implemented to provide the forecaster with high resolution analyses at 15 minutes interval that incorporate the locally available data. This analysis system will soon be used as an initialization for the ARPS prognostic model that will provide forecasters with 2km resolution forecast data. Historically, SMG forecasters have used the Aviation model for the primary input for forecasts over Spain and northern Africa. The Aviation model currently has a resolution of about 80km. SMG is now running the workstation Eta model at a resolution of about 22km over the transoceanic abort landing sites to improve forecast guidance for potential emergency landings at these locations.

Case studies for the workstation Eta running over Spain and North Africa will demonstrate the use of the models data to display unique SIVs and evaluate flight rules. The utility of the ADAS analysis to monitor the SIVs in the area surrounding KSC will be shown. This will include some unique displays of diagnosed cloud water/ice versus altitude. The ability of the workstation Eta to successfully depict mesoscale circulations in Spain will also be shown. The addition of these models to the SMG forecasters’ tools is a significant improvement over centrally produced model output. Forecasters have access to data from the model at the highest spatial and temporal resolutions. The addition of the ARPS prognostic model for KSC has potential to improve significantly the prediction of summertime convection, a difficult forecast challenge.