21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms and 19th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Program Committee

Papers:

12:00 AM

Committee Member: Nolan T. Atkins (Chairperson), David C. Dowell, Roger Edwards, Brian A. Klimowski, Yvette P. Richardson, R. Jeffrey Trapp, and Morris L. Weisman

SUN 11 AUG

CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

MON 12 AUG

REGISTRATION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, 16 AUGUST

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Opening Remarks

Organizer: Edward L Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Joint Session 1

Joint Keynote Address (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

8:30 AM

J1.1

Forecasting severe local storms...past, present, and future

Robert H. Johns, Retired severe local storms forecaster, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss

Joint Session 2

Joint Keynote Address II (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

9:15 AM

J2.1

Grassroots science and technology transfer in a collaborative research/operational environment

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, J. A. Hart, and A. Just

Poster PDF (280.1 kB)

COFFEE BREAK

1

Case Studies I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

10:30 AM

1.1

An analysis of the record-breaking 9–10 November 1996 rainfall in the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys

J. R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Durnford

Poster PDF (36.9 kB)

10:45 AM

1.2

Common characteristics of heavy banded snowfall events in the central United States

James T. Moore, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and S. Ng and C. E. Graves

11:00 AM

1.3

Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases

Daniel St. Jean, NOAA/NWSFO, South Burlington, VT; and P. A. Sisson

11:15 AM

1.4

An examination of the variability of snowfall associated with terrain-induced circulations in central New Mexico using the workstation ETA and MM5 models

Deirdre Kann, NOAA/NWS, Albuquerque, NM; and E. Ritchie

Poster PDF (309.8 kB)

11:30 AM

1.5

An Analysis of MM5 Performance for Four Major Snowstorms over the Korean Peninsula

Peter B. Roohr, CIRES/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. Brooks

Poster PDF (1013.4 kB)

11:44 AM

1.6

Paper Moved to session 10, new paper number 10.2a

1

Mesoscale Convective Systems I

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Stan Trier, NCAR

Papers:

10:30 AM

1.1

The role of low-level vertical wind shear in promoting long-lived, severe wind-producing convective systems

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO

10:45 AM

1.2

Dynamics of convective lines with leading precipitation

Matthew D. Parker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (420.1 kB)

11:00 AM

1.3

An Observational and Numerical Study of Derecho-Producing Convective Systems

Michael C. Coniglio, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud and M. B. Richman

11:15 AM

1.4

Observations of the 27 May 2001 High-End Derecho Event in Oklahoma

Daniel J. Miller, NOAA/NWSFO, Norman, OK; and D. L. Andra Jr., J. S. Evans, and R. H. Johns

11:30 AM

1.5

A mesoscale analysis of the Lubbock area bow echo of 30 May 2001

Caleb J. Midgley, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and M. R. Conder, A. L. Doggett IV, and S. W. Weinbeck

Poster PDF (165.9 kB)

11:45 AM

1.6

The Effects of Coastlines on the Evolution of Strong, Long Lived Squall Lines

Todd P. Lericos, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, A. I. Watson, and M. L. Weisman

LUNCH BREAK

Weather Briefing

2

Case Studies II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:

1:30 PM

2.1

Sensitivity of Model Thunderstorms to Modifications to the Environmental Conditions by a nearby Thunderstorm in the Prediction of 2000 Fort Worth Tornado Case

Ming Hu, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Poster PDF (496.8 kB)

1:45 PM

2.2

Impact of adjustments in the Kain-Fritsch Convective Scheme on QPF of Elevated Convection

Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., R. W. Arritt, and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (24.1 kB)

2:00 PM

2.3

Life cycle differences between consecutive rapidly deepening continental cyclones

Steven G. Decker, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)

2:15 PM

2.4

Local mesoscale models for nowcasting Space Shuttle landing weather

Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram and R. Lafosse

Poster PDF (53.0 kB)

2:30 PM

2.5

A potential vorticity view of Southern Hemisphere blocking

Stewart C. R. Allen, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and D. J. Karoly

Poster PDF (206.8 kB)

2:45 PM

2.6

Mesoscale Forecasting of the EM Propagation Environment and Dust Storms in the Persian Gulf

Tracy Haack, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Liu, D. L. Westphal, A. L. Walker, and S. D. Burk

2

Mesoscale Convective Systems II

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Ray Wolf, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

1:30 PM

2.1

Low-Level Mesovortices within Squall Lines: Vortexgenesis and Association with Damaging Surface Winds

Robert J. Trapp, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman

1:45 PM

2.2

Fine Scale Structures of a Squall Line Observed By NCAR ELDORA

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Wakimoto and J. F. Gamache

Poster PDF (726.7 kB)

2:00 PM

2.3

Doppler radar observations of a small mesoscale convective vortex within a mesoscale convective system

Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Coleman

2:15 PM

2.4

Severe Weather Evolution Associated with a Bow Echo and a Series of Mesolows

Diana M. Blahyj, SUNY, Brockport, NY; and D. A. Imy

Poster PDF (231.6 kB)

2:30 PM

2.5

Evolution of an intense MCS over south-central Arizona on 16–17 August 2001

G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and D. N. Runyan

Poster PDF (294.4 kB)

2:45 PM

2.6

The degree of balance in a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective vortex

Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. S. Nolan, J. P. Kossin, and R. H. Johnson

Poster PDF (86.6 kB)

Coffee Break with the Poster Session

Poster Session 1

Mesoscale Convective Systems and MCVs

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P1.1

The maintenance of severe mesoscale convective systems through the southern Appalachians: favorable vs. unfavorable environments

P1.2

The 10–11 April 2001 late night tornado outbreak along a squall line in south central Nebraska/north central Kansas

Rick Ewald, NOAA/NWS, Hastings, NE; and D. D. Nietfeld

P1.3

Radar Survey of Mesoscale Convective System Development

Israel L. Jirak, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. L. McAnelly

Poster PDF (259.6 kB)

P1.4

The Structure and Dynamics of Moist Absolutely Unstable Layers in Simulated Squall Lines

George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

P1.5

Evolution of a mesoscale convective vortex over Northern Arizona

David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ

Poster PDF (313.6 kB)

P1.6

A preliminary investigation of derecho-producing MCSs over the central and eastern United States in environments of very low dewpoints

Stephen F. Corfidi, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK

P1.7

A preliminary comparison between convectively generated mesoscale vortices in the United States and in China

Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO

P1.8

A turn of events for a long-lived convective system

John D. Tuttle, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone

Poster PDF (424.6 kB)

Poster Session 1

Weather Analysis, Forecasting and Numerical Prediction

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

P1.1

Mesoscale Predictability Estimated through Explicit Simulation of Moist Baroclinic Waves

Zhe-Min Tan, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Rotunno, C. Snyder, and F. Zhang

Poster PDF (662.9 kB)

P1.2

Moist NWP equations and missing terms

Terry Davies, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and M. Diamantakis and A. J. Malcolm

Poster PDF (200.0 kB)

P1.3

An Exact Anelastic Beltrami–Flow Solution for use on model validation

Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. P. Richardson

P1.4

The impact of assimilating AVHRR–derived humidity on high latitude MM5 forecasts

Xingang Fan, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and J. S. Tilley

Poster PDF (159.7 kB)

P1.5

Performance of the global shallow water model with double Fourier series on the interaction and movement of typhoon-scale vortices

Hyeong Bin Cheong, Pukyong National University, Pusan, Korea; and I. H. Kwon, M. J. Lee, and M. K. Kang

P1.6

Progresses and future plans for OSSE/NPOESS

Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, T. J. Kleespies, J. Terry, H. Sun, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, R. Atlas, M. D. Goldberg, J. G. Yoe, W. E. Baker, C. S. Velden, W. Wolf, S. C. Bloom, G. Brin, and C. O'Handley

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2002/nwp15.masutani.P1_6.pdf

Poster PDF (100.9 kB)

P1.7

Harman and Harmpred: Web-Based Program to analyze Tidal Constituents and Tidal Forcasts for the Texas Coast

Aimee L. Mostella, Texas A&M University and Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and S. Duff and P. R. Michaud

Poster PDF (33.7 kB)

P1.8

Planetary and Synoptic Scale Interactions in Southeast Pacific Blocking Using Potential Vorticity Diagnostics

Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and J. P. Burkhardt and E. K. Gilliland

Poster PDF (387.7 kB)

P1.9

Mesoscale ensemble prediction of winter precipitation in a severe winter storm

Brian F. Jewett, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy, R. M. Rauber, J. Grim, L. Barker, and D. Smith

Poster PDF (242.9 kB)

P1.10

Improved terrain analysis for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^tm) and its impact to the forecast performance

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt and J. E. Nachamkin

Poster PDF (39.1 kB)

P1.11

Climatology of warm season 500 hPa cutoff cyclones and a case study diagnosis of 14—17 July 2000

Matthew J. Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and K. D. LaPenta

P1.12

An Improved Soil-Vegetation Physics for COAMPS^TM

Kang Nai, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, Q. Xu, K. D. Sashegyi, and T. R. Holt

Poster PDF (67.5 kB)

P1.13

A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach to Geopotential Prediction Using Equivalent Barotropic Model

Alireza D. Shaneh, University of Tehran, Montreal, QC, Canada; and A. Bidokhti, C. Lucas, and M. Teshnehlab

P1.14

A global 500 hPa cutoff cyclone climatology: 1953–1999

Brandon A. Smith, SUNY, Albany, New York; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. St. Jean

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

P1.15

A Forecast Overview of the 26 January 1996 Blizzard Across Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois Using Non-Standard Forecast Techniques

Todd E. Holsten, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and T. P. Hendricks

P1.16

Paper Move to Joint Poster Session JP2, New Paper number JP2.9

Poster Session 2

Convectively Driven High Wind Events

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P2.1

Storm Surge on Lake Butte Des Morts during the 11 June 2001 bow echo event

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX; and E. S. Brusky and J. K. Last

Poster PDF (863.5 kB)

P2.2

Polarimetric radar observations of a microburst-producing thunderstorm during STEPS

Kevin A. Scharfenberg, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA, Norman, OK

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~kscharf/sls02/

Poster PDF (41.6 kB)

P2.3

Meteorological characteristics of a severe wind and dust emission event; southwestern USA, 6–7 April 2001

Arthur L. Doggett IV, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and T. E. Gill, R. E. Peterson, A. J. -. M. Bory, and P. E. Biscaye

Poster PDF (123.8 kB)

P2.4

Fine-scale outflow structure of the 10 July 2001 Greeley, CO convective wind event

Bruce D. Lee, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and C. A. Finley

Poster PDF (571.9 kB)

P2.5

Convective Wind Storms

Edward Henderson, DOE, Norfolk, VA

P2.6

Analysis of convective downdrafts and microbursts using a simple, one-dimensional model

Daniel T. Lindsey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

http://kiwi.atmos.colostate.edu/BUGS/groupPIX/daniel/Pdaniel.html

P2.7

A Case Study of 7–9 April 2001 Dust Storm in Northern China

Shigong Wang, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China; and M. Yang, M. Liu, D. Westphal, K. D. Sashegyi, and Q. Xu

Poster PDF (221.5 kB)

P2.8

A comparison of the environment and structure of the 29 May and 25 June 2000 derechos

P2.9

A climatological analysis of heatbursts in Oklahoma

Justin D. Lane, NOAA/NWSFO, Greer, SC

Poster PDF (370.4 kB)

Poster Session 3

Hail and Hailstorms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P3.1

Characteristics of severe hail events in eastern Australia

Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

Poster PDF (116.9 kB)

P3.2

Hail Damage Threshold Sizes for Common Roofing and Siding Materials

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX; and R. F. Herzog, S. J. Morrison, and S. R. Smith

Poster PDF (246.9 kB)

P3.3

The Historic Missouri-Illinois High Precipitation Supercell of 10 April 2001

Fred H. Glass, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and M. F. Britt

P3.4

The Mayfest High-Precipitation Supercell of 5 May 1995—A Case Study

Edward J. Calianese, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and J. K. Jordan, E. B. Curran, A. R. Moller, and G. Woodall

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/jjordan/Research/950505/mayfest.pdf

Poster PDF (961.1 kB)

3

Statistical Evaluation I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron

Papers:

4:30 PM

3.1

Operational models and performance evaluation at Fleet Numerical

Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. Dickerman, J. Lerner, and M. Swenson

Poster PDF (34.8 kB)

4:45 PM

3.2

Determining the resolved spatial scales of Eta model precipitation forecasts

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Wandishin

Poster PDF (129.5 kB)

5:00 PM

3.3

Objective verification of the MM5 over the Eastern U.S.: comparison with the NCEP Eta and impact of high resolution

Biran A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and J. S. Tongue and J. B. Olson

Poster PDF (960.0 kB)

5:14 PM

3.4

Paper Moved to Session 5, New paper number 5.6a

5:15 PM

3.5

Spatial bias errors in the operational NCEP Eta model

Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and D. M. Schultz

Poster PDF (819.0 kB)

5:30 PM

3.6

Updateable model output statistics: an effective tool for evaluation of NWP forecasts

Marcel Vallée, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. J. Wilson

Poster PDF (80.6 kB)

3

Bow Echo and MCV Experiment (BAMEX) Symposium

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Ron Przybylinski, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

4:30 PM

3.1

Probing Rotationally Dominated Mesoscale Convective Systems

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/bamex/science.html

Poster PDF (146.6 kB)

4:52 PM

3.2

Outstanding issues related to bow echoes and derechoes component of BAMEX

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and R. J. Trapp

5:15 PM

3.3

The Research Aircraft Component of the Bow-Echo and MCV Experiment (BAMEX)

David P. Jorgensen, NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Wakimoto

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/bamex/science.html

Poster PDF (586.9 kB)

5:37 PM

3.4

Plans for Ground-Based Observations During BAMEX

Michael I. Biggerstaff, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Poster PDF (233.3 kB)

sessions end for the day

Weather Event Simulator Workshop

TUE 13 AUG

Joint Session 3

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: Robert H. Johns, NOAA/NSSL/SPC

Papers:

8:00 AM

J3.1

A Structured Process for Prediction of Convection Associated with Split Cold Fronts

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (861.3 kB)

8:15 AM

J3.2

Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (166.3 kB)

8:30 AM

J3.3

Operational ensemble cloud model forecasts: Some preliminary results

Kimberly L. Elmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, P. C. Banacos, and S. K. Jones

Poster PDF (92.3 kB)

8:45 AM

J3.4

Automated Gridded Forecast Guidance for Thunderstorms and Severe Local Storms Based on the Eta Model

Kathryn K. Hughes, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop

Poster PDF (295.3 kB)

4

Radar and Multi-Sensor Applications

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Les Lemon, Baron Services Inc; Greg Stumpf, NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

8:00 AM

4.1

NEXRAD Product ImprovemenT—Expanding Science Horizons

Robert E. Saffle, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. C. Elvander and M. J. Istok

Poster PDF (28.1 kB)

8:15 AM

4.2

Dissemination and Utilization of NEXRAD Data in the Unidata Community

Steven R. Chiswell, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC

http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/staff/chiz/presentations/radar/

Poster PDF (17.6 kB)

8:29 AM

4.3

Paper has been moved to Poster Session P4, New paper number P4.13

8:30 AM

4.4

Visualization of Radar Data in Three-dimensions

Arthur L. Doggett IV, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and X. Gilliam, K. Manross, and M. Gamel

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

8:45 AM

4.5

WDSS-II: An Extensible, Multi-source Meteorological Algorithm Development Interface

V. Lakshmanan, NOAA/NSSL & Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~lakshman/Papers/

Poster PDF (28.6 kB)

9:00 AM

4.6

The Multiple-Radar Severe Storm Analysis Program (MR-SSAP) for WDSS-II

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith and A. E. Gerard

Poster PDF (181.7 kB)

9:15 AM

4.7

The WDSS-II Supercell Identification and Assessment Algorithm

Richard Jason Lynn, NOAA/NCEP/SPC and CIMMS, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (121.5 kB)

9:30 AM

4.8

Current and Planned Activities for the Warning Decision Support System—Integrated Information (WDSS-II)

Kurt D. Hondl, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hondl/SLS/

Poster PDF (133.0 kB)

9:45 AM

4.3a

Diagnosed Structure of the Mulhall Tornado Using VTD Algorithm (Formerly paper P4.12)

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman

Poster PDF (479.8 kB)

Joint Session 4

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

9:00 AM

J4.1

Forecast guidance from NCEP's high resolution nonhydrostatic mesoscale model

Thomas L. Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and E. Rogers, Z. Janjic, H. Chuang, and G. DiMego

9:15 AM

J4.2

Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations

John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, P. R. Janish, G. W. Carbin, M. P. Kay, and L. Brown

Poster PDF (94.7 kB)

9:30 AM

J4.3

Analysis of Mesoscale Vertical Circulations using WSR-88D VAD and Wind Profiler Data

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (469.7 kB)

9:45 AM

J4.4

Summer storm initiation and evolution in central Arizona

Pamela L. MacKeen, CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Schultz

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~mackeen/radarclimo.html

Poster PDF (247.7 kB)

Coffee Break

Joint Session 5

The Use of Mesoscale models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Organizer: David Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

10:30 AM

J5.1

A Preliminary Examination of the Performance of Several Mesoscale Models for Convective Forecasting During IHOP

Edward J. Szoke, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. Shaw, M. P. Kay, J. M. Brown, P. Janish, and R. Schneider

10:45 AM

J5.2

Parameterization of convection at mesoscale resolution

James M. Done, University of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and P. A. Clark, G. C. Craig, M. E. B. Gray, and S. L. Gray

Poster PDF (52.2 kB)

11:00 AM

J5.3

Impact of GPS water vapor data on RUC severe weather forecasts

Tracy Lorraine Smith, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO and NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. I. Gutman, and B. Schwartz

Poster PDF (239.4 kB)

5

Radar Applications

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Don Burgess, NOAA/NSSL; Josh Wurman, University of Oklahoma

Papers:

10:30 AM

5.1

Radar characteristics of violent tornadic storms using the NSSL algorithms across separate geographic regions of the United States

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and R. Wynne, N. Dipasquale, H. Guerrero, and T. Hendricks

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/html/Violenttornadoes.html

Poster PDF (3.9 MB)

10:45 AM

5.2

Relationships between baroclinically-generated horizontal vorticity and mesocyclone intensity as revealed by simple adjoint wind retrievals using WSR-88D data

Janelle M. Janish, CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier and J. Gao

11:00 AM

5.3

Development of warning criteria for severe pulse thunderstorms in the Northeastern United States using the WSR-88D

Carl S. Cerniglia, NOAA/NWSFO, Seattle, WA; and W. R. Snyder

Poster PDF (113.7 kB)

11:15 AM

5.4

Increasing the Usefulness of a Mesocyclone Climatology

Kevin M. McGrath, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones and J. T. Snow

http://mesocyclone.ou.edu

Poster PDF (277.3 kB)

11:30 AM

5.5

Improved Methodology for Correlating Mesocyclone Detections with Tornadoes

Thomas A. Jones, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. M. McGrath and J. T. Snow

http://mesocyclone.ou.edu

Poster PDF (610.0 kB)

11:45 AM

5.6

The July 4 2001 Severe Weather outbreak in Southern Ontario as Diagnosed by the New Radar Data Processing System of the National Radar Project of Canada

Mike Leduc, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and P. Joe, M. Falla, P. Van Rijn, S. Lapczak, I. Ruddick, A. Ashton, and R. Alsen

Poster PDF (972.9 kB)

Joint Session 6

The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

11:15 AM

J6.1

Mesoscale modeling at WFO Jacksonville: Five years of trying to get Florida severe weather right

Patrick T. Welsh, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL

11:30 AM

J6.2

Evaluation of a rapidly relocatable high-resolution numerical model for meteorological nowcasting based on MM5

Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, A. M. Gibbs, A. J. Schroeder, and G. K. Hunter

Poster PDF (264.5 kB)

11:45 AM

J6.3

Recent Advances in Diabatic Initialization of a Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model

Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (584.1 kB)

LUNCH BREAK

Weather Briefing

4A

Phenomenological Forecasting I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Christopher A. Davis, NCAR

Papers:

1:30 PM

4A.1

An Analysis of the Incorporation of Lightning into the Nowcasting of Enhanced Frozen Precipitation

Peter B. Roohr, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. H. Vonder Haar

Poster PDF (195.1 kB)

1:45 PM

4A.2

Integrated Icing Forecast Algorithm Assessment

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and K. Price and D. Sims

Poster PDF (130.2 kB)

2:00 PM

4A.3

Short-Term Probabilistic forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility utilizing high-Frequency surface observations

Stephen M. Leyton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (139.5 kB)

2:15 PM

4A.4

Comparing Weather Hazards Using the BFM and MM5

Jeffrey E. Passner, Army Reseach Labatory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

2:30 PM

4A.5

TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada and Results

Jacques Montpetit, Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. Wilson, and R. Verret

Poster PDF (85.2 kB)

2:45 PM

4A.6

Signatures of Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain, their Accurate Locations From AMSU-B Data onboard NOAA Satellite

Abolhassan Gheiby, University of Pune, Pune, Maharshtra, India; and P. N. Sen, D. M. Puranik, and R. N. Karekar

6

Damage Assessment and Wind Speeds

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel

Papers:

1:30 PM

6.1

Development of an enhanced Fujita Scale for estimating tornado intensity

James R. McDonald, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX

Poster PDF (84.5 kB)

2:00 PM

6.2

Tornadic wind speeds through engineering analysis

Kishor C. Mehta, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

2:15 PM

6.3

A discussion of radar observations of extreme winds in tornadoes

Joshua Wurman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

2:30 PM

6.4

Comparison of DOW doppler velocities and the damage survey of the 30 May 1998 Spencer, SD tornado

Curtis R. Alexander, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Wurman

2:45 PM

6.5

Damage Survey and Radar Analysis of the Ft. Worth and Arlington, TX Tornadoes on 28 March 2000

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX; and M. Foster

Poster PDF (644.1 kB)

4B

Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Modeling

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Peter B. Roohr, 88th Weather Squadron

Papers:

1:30 PM

4B.1

Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: 4DVar results

N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Dowell and J. Sun

Poster PDF (191.8 kB)

1:45 PM

4B.2

Estimating environmental soundings for use in convective-scale NWP

Chris Snyder, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. C. Skamarock

2:00 PM

4B.3

Real-time Storm-scale Forecast Support for IHOP 2002 at CAPS

Ming Xue, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. Brewster, D. Weber, K. W. Thomas, F. Kong, and E. Kemp

2:15 PM

4B.4

Sensitivity study on nudging parameters for a mesoscale FDDA system

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, C. A. Davis, and T. T. Warner

Poster PDF (344.9 kB)

2:30 PM

4B.5

Event-based verification of operational mesoscale NWP

Graham A. Mills, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

2:45 PM

4B.6

A Framework for Globalization of Regional Atmospheric Models: Dry Core and Quasi-Uniform (QU) Grids

Miodrag Rancic, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and H. Zhang

COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSION

Joint Poster Session 1

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19 WAF/15 NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

JP1.1

Weather Event Simulator Best Practices

John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. M. Quoetone, E. Page, and M. A. Magsig

Poster PDF (117.0 kB)

JP1.2

Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques

Roger Edwards, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (122.2 kB)

JP1.3

Anticipating and monitoring supercell motion for severe weather operations

Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. J. Bunkers

Poster PDF (182.7 kB)

JP1.4

Paper has been moved to SLS session 16, new paper number 16.7A

JP1.5

Synoptic and mesoscale patterns associated with violent tornadoes across separate geographic regions of the United States: part II—upper-level characteristics

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and N. Dipasquale and R. Wynne

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/html/Violenttornadoes.html

Poster PDF (3.8 MB)

JP1.6

Lightning nowcasts using WSR-88D derived products and AWIPS

Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and R. Lafosse and T. D. Oram

Poster PDF (23.1 kB)

JP1.7

Enhancements to a new convective sounding analysis program for AWIPS

Xuechao Yu, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; and M. A. Magsig and M. Bunkers

Poster PDF (449.6 kB)

JP1.8

Forecasting extreme rainfall leading to flash flood events in the UK

Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and C. G. Collier and W. Hand

Poster PDF (164.7 kB)

JP1.9

An Assessment of 3-and 6-h RUC CAPE forecasts

Barry Schwartz, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin

JP1.10

Probabilistic forecasts of severe local storms in the 0–3 hour timeframe from an advective-statistical technique

David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky, C. Mello, and J. Dai

Poster PDF (160.1 kB)

JP1.11

Visually enhanced composite charts for severe weather forecasting and real-time diagnosis

Josh Korotky, NOAA/NWS, Coraopolis, PA

Joint Poster Session 2

Severe Local Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP) new

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Papers:

JP2.1

Observed and Modeled Structure of the Subtropical Sea Breeze

John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

JP2.2

NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast of the 6—7 January 2002 Northeast Snowstorm: Role of initial conditions

William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Jascourt

http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases

Poster PDF (277.7 kB)

JP2.3

Late November 2001 Winter Precipitation Event Over South Central Texas

Robert A. Blaha, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/wx/nov282001/nov28.htm

Poster PDF (27.4 kB)

JP2.4

Verification of MM5 Cloud Microphysics Schemes for East Asia

Dean James Carter, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and R. P. Lowther

JP2.5

ENSO-based forecasting of seasonal tropical cyclone trends from historical analyses of genesis and OLR oscillations

Colin K. Kennedy, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

Poster PDF (61.6 kB)

JP2.6

Analysis of mesoscale banded features in the 5–6 February 2001 New England snowstorm

David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. S. W. Horwood

Poster PDF (417.3 kB)

JP2.7

The use of a phase shifted verification score to evaluate warm season QPF

Steven L. Aves, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., E. Kalnay, and M. Miller

JP2.8

COAMPS^TM Forecasting of Land–falling Fronts

Carey L. Dickerman, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

JP2.9

Forecaster training on NWP through case examples (Formerly paper p1.16)

Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET at NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Bua

http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu3/cases/

Poster PDF (751.6 kB)

Joint Poster Session 3

The use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms; and the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Papers:

JP3.1

An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center

Phillip D. Bothwell, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. Hart and R. L. Thompson

Poster PDF (113.6 kB)

JP3.2

Evaluation of Eta Model Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Melissa S. Bukovsky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. R. Janish, J. S. Kain, and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (194.3 kB)

JP3.3

The Use of the GEM Forecast Model at very high resolution during ELBOW 2001

Patrick King, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and B. Murphy, A. Erfani, and D. Sills

Poster PDF (659.6 kB)

Joint Poster Session 4

The Use of Mesoscale Models in Severe Storms Forecasting (Joint with 21SLS and 19WAF/15NWP)

Sponsors: (Joint between the 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms )

Papers:

JP4.1

Numerical forecast simulations of precipitation events in complex terrain

J. Wang, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. R. Hjelmfelt, W. Capehart, and R. D. Farley

JP4.2

Mesoscale Modeling of Significant Severe Weather and Flash Flood Events at WFO Jackson, MS

Alan Gerard, NOAA/NWS, Jackson, MS; and S. Listemaa

Poster PDF (429.2 kB)

JP4.3

Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on the Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rainfall in Korea

Hee-Dong Yoo, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier, K. Brewster, S. Y. Lee, and C. H. Cho

Poster PDF (121.1 kB)

JP4.4

Using 4d-VAR to move a simulated hurricane in a mesoscale model

Ross N. Hoffman, AER, Lexington, MA; and J. M. Henderson and S. M. Leidner

Poster PDF (129.8 kB)

JP4.5

Comparison of Meso Eta Wind Forecasts with TCOON Measurements along the Coast of Texas

Jeremy Alan Stearns, Texas A&M University, Conrad Blucher Institute, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot, A. R. Patrick, P. Michaud, and W. G. Collins

Poster PDF (218.8 kB)

JP4.6

A Variational Method for Dual-Doppler Radar Retrievals of Wind and Thermodynamic Fields

Shun Liu, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. Qiu and Q. Xu

Poster PDF (200.3 kB)

JP4.7

A statistical evaluation of forecasting errors in numerical models for weather prediction of severe rainfalls events in Venezuelan coasts

Jaime E. Guerra, Universidad Nacional Experimental Maritima del Caribe, Estado Vargas, Venezuela; and I. Garcia, J. Jorge, and G. Jaimes

JP4.8

CEDRIC as a software tool for analyzing WRF model output

L. Jay Miller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Fredrick and C. A. Davis

Poster Session 4

Radar Applications

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P4.1

The Rapid-Scan DOW

Joshua Wurman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

P4.2

On the investigation of vertically integrated liquid (VIL) using WSR-88D's new volume coverage patterns

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and R. A. Brown and D. R. Cheresnick

P4.3

Improvements to the WSR-88D Storm Cell Identification and Tracking algorithm

Arthur Witt, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and V. K. McCoy

P4.4

Improved detection of Lake Ontario snowstorms using lower elevation angles for surrounding WSR-88Ds: A simulation

Rodger A. Brown, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and V. T. Wood

P4.5

Development and validation of downburst prediction equations for the DDPDA

Travis M. Smith, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore and S. A. Myers

Poster PDF (283.5 kB)

P4.6

A Reassessment of the Percentage of Tornadic Mesocyclones

Robert J. Trapp, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Stumpf

Poster PDF (17.5 kB)

P4.7

Image Processing of Meteorological Radar Data Using a Coherent Clustering Technique

James Dunyak, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and X. Gilliam, A. L. Doggett IV, and S. Mitra

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

P4.8

Tornado case study using Czech weather radar network

Petr Novak, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Praha, Czech Republic; and J. Kracmar and M. Setvak

Poster PDF (683.8 kB)

P4.9

Identification of Biological Scatters and Radar Data Quality Control

Pengfei Zhang, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Q. Xu and A. Ryzhkov

Poster PDF (134.2 kB)

P4.10

The "Owl Horn" radar signature in developing supercells

Matthew R. Kramar, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, A. Pazmany, and J. D. Tuttle

Poster PDF (590.0 kB)

P4.11

An evaluation of NSSL's near-storm environment algorithm

Shannon A. Myers, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith

Poster PDF (210.8 kB)

P4.12

Paper has been moved to session 4, new paper number 4.3A

P4.13

Radar Data Processing for Severe Weather in the National Radar Project of Canada (formerly paper 4.3)

Paul Joe, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and M. Falla, P. Van Rijn, L. Stamadianos, T. Falla, D. Magosse, L. Ing, and J. Dobson

Poster PDF (494.4 kB)

P4.14

The Kellerville Tornado during VORTEX: Damage Survey and Doppler Radar Analyses

Roger Wakimoto, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and H. Murphey, D. C. Dowell, and H. Bluestein

Poster Session 5

Multi-sensor Severe Weather Applications

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P5.1

Real-time Merging of Multisource Data

V. Lakshmanan, NOAA/NSSL and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (122.1 kB)

P5.2

Statistical Clustering for Hierarchical Storm Identification

V. Lakshmanan, NOAA/NSSL and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

P5.3

Virtual Radar Volumes: Creation, Algorithm Access, and Visualization

Richard Jason Lynn, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and V. Lakshmanan

Poster PDF (118.1 kB)

P5.4

A two-dimensional, local, linear, least-squares method of derivative estimates from Doppler radial velocity

Travis M. Smith, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore

7

Hazard Mitigation and Societal Impacts of Severe Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Al Moller, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

4:30 PM

7.1

Proactive or Reactive: The Severe Storm Threat to Large Event Venues

Roger Edwards, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and L. R. Lemon

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/edwards/lrgvenue.pdf

Poster PDF (668.7 kB)

4:45 PM

7.2

A new flash flood action paradigm

Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, Austin/San Antonio, TX

Poster PDF (17.2 kB)

5:00 PM

7.3

OK-FIRST: The Oklahoma Example of Preparedness to Mitigate the Human Impacts of Severe Storms

Dale A. Morris, Oklahoma Climatolgical Survey and University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. A. Kloesel

Poster PDF (602.5 kB)

5:15 PM

7.4

The ideal lead time for tornado warnings—A look from the customer's perspective

Rick Ewald, NOAA/NWSFO, Hastings, NE; and J. L. Guyer

Poster PDF (57.3 kB)

5:30 PM

7.5

What would be the monetary loss if the 1896 St. Louis/East St. Louis tornado happened today?

Kyle A. Beatty, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA

Poster PDF (420.1 kB)

5

Mesoscale Processes and Convection

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Greg Forbes, The Weather Channel

Papers:

4:30 PM

5.1

The impact of parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures in the Eta model

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay

Poster PDF (228.5 kB)

4:45 PM

5.2

Quantitative Precipitation in Simulated Deep Convection: Sensitivity to the Hail/Graupel Category

Matthew S. Gilmore, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Straka and E. N. Rasmussen

Poster PDF (689.0 kB)

5:00 PM

5.3

Quality control problems for VAD Winds and NEXRAD Level-II winds in the presence of migrating birds

Li Bi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro, P. Zhang, and Q. Xu

5:15 PM

5.4

Forecast uses of terminal doppler weather radar (TDWR) data

Steven M. Zubrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Sterling, VA

Poster PDF (71.1 kB)

5:30 PM

5.5

Large–scale Environment and diurnal cycle of u.s. warm season precipitation episodes

D. A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone, C. A. Davis, and J. D. Tuttle

Poster PDF (424.6 kB)

5:44 PM

5.6

paper moved to session 12, New paper number 12.6

5:45 PM

5.6a

Statistical-Dynamical Forecasts of Warm Season Rainfall Over North America (Formerly Paper 3.4)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych, R. E. Carbone, K. W. Manning, and J. Tuttle

Poster PDF (408.7 kB)

Sessions End for the day

Evening Video/Slide Presentation

WED 14 AUG

6

Winter Weather and Climatological Studies

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: John R. Gyakum, McGill University

Papers:

8:00 AM

6.1

Establishing a 10 year climatology of 101.6 mm (4 inch) rainfall days, part I

Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS, Camp Springs, MD; and R. H. Grumm, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart

8:15 AM

6.2

Can possible heavy rainfall events be identified by comparing various parameters to the climatological norms?

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. W. Junker, R. Hart, and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (111.3 kB)

8:30 AM

6.3

A Northeast Snowstorm Impact Scale

Paul J. Kocin, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and L. W. Uccellini

8:45 AM

6.4

A study of heavy precipitation occurring in continental and marine environments

John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Sisson, G. Toth, P. Lewis, and J. K. Parker

9:00 AM

6.5

A climatological and composite study of cold season banded precipitation in the northeast United States

David Novak, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. S. Waldstreicher

Poster PDF (479.7 kB)

9:15 AM

6.6

Large-scale circulation anomaly indices in relation to cool-season precipitation events in the northeastern United States

David Groenert, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and R. H. Grumm

Poster PDF (467.3 kB)

9:30 AM

6.7

Northern Hemisphere warming: A thickness climatology

Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (802.1 kB)

9:45 AM

6.8

The effects of diabatic redistribution of potential vorticity on cold frontal rainbands and cold front propagation

Heather Dawn Reeves, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)

8

Numerical Modeling of Severe Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Kelvin Droegemeier, University of Oklahoma; Bruce Lee, University of Northern Colorado

Papers:

8:00 AM

8.1

Idealized Boundary-Crossing Supercell Simulations of 2 June 1995

Matthew S. Gilmore, CIMMS/ Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, E. R. Mansell, J. M. Straka, and E. N. Rasmussen

8:15 AM

8.2

What is appropriate resolution for simulations of thunderstorms? An answer from a turbulence perspective

George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (287.7 kB)

8:30 AM

8.3

High Resolution Simulation of the Development and Structure of a Tornado and Its Parent Supercell

Robert Wilhelmson, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and L. Wicker, S. Peckham, P. Woodward, S. Anderson, D. Porter, and C. Shaw

http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/AOS/high_resolution.html

Poster PDF (18.1 kB)

8:45 AM

8.4

A large eddy simulation of a tornadic supercell: Comparison with observations

Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. C. Dowell, Y. P. Richardson, and R. Wilhelmson

Poster PDF (580.6 kB)

9:00 AM

8.5

The sensitivity of numerically simulated cyclic mesocyclogenesis to variations in environmental parameters

Edwin J. Adlerman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (965.0 kB)

9:15 AM

8.6

Numerical Simulations of Flanking Line Phenomena

Leigh Orf, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and R. Wilhelmson

Poster PDF (232.9 kB)

9:30 AM

8.7

A numerical study of a nontornadic supercell over France

Katia Chancibault, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and V. Ducrocq and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)

9:45 AM

8.8

On strong dependence of behavior of a numerically-simulated classic supercell on grid size

Akira Noda, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Niino

Poster PDF (263.0 kB)

COFFEE BREAK

7A

Tropical Cyclones

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC

Papers:

10:30 AM

7A.1

2001 COAMPS^TM tropical cyclone verification in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Jeffrey A. Lerner, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and B. J. Strahl

Poster PDF (47.2 kB)

10:45 AM

7A.2

An examination of the mesoscale structure associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Agnes (1972)

Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)

11:00 AM

7A.3

Quantitative measurements of extratropical transition in the Atlantic Basin

Joshua K. Darr, SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (486.9 kB)

11:14 AM

7A.4

Paper moved to session 10, New paper number 10.4a

11:15 AM

7A.5

Nonclassical tropopause folding

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and M. J. Dickinson and E. H. Atallah

Poster PDF (3.3 MB)

11:30 AM

7A.6

Importance of Tropical easterly waves to the development of surges over the Gulf of California

David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (2.0 MB)

9

Convective Initation

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Roger Wakimoto, University of California

Papers:

10:30 AM

9.1

An Overview of the International H₂O Project (IHOP_2002)

Tammy M. Weckwerth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. B. Parsons

11:00 AM

9.2

Multiple Doppler Radar Observations of Convective Initiation During IHOP

Yvette P. Richardson, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Wurman and T. M. Weckwerth

11:15 AM

9.3

Probabilistic Convection Initiation Forecasts in Support of IHOP During the 2002 SPC/NSSL Spring Program

Paul R. Janish, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, R. Schneider, J. P. Cupo, E. Szoke, J. M. Brown, and C. Ziegler

Poster PDF (127.2 kB)

11:30 AM

9.4

Convective initiation ahead of the sea-breeze front

Robert G. Fovell, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and P. S. Dailey

Poster PDF (228.8 kB)

11:45 AM

9.5

Numerical simulation of the interaction between the dryline and horizontal convective rolls

Steven E. Peckham, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson, L. J. Wicker, and C. L. Ziegler

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

7B

Statistical Evaluation II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Jason E. Nachamkin, FNMOC

Papers:

10:30 AM

7B.1

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^tm)

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin, J. M. Schmidt, and C. S. Liou

http://

Poster PDF (69.3 kB)

10:45 AM

7B.2

Forecast Verification Using Meteorological Event Composites

Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA

Poster PDF (128.7 kB)

11:00 AM

7B.3

Development of an “events-oriented” approach to forecast verification

Michael E. Baldwin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. Lakshmivarahan and J. S. Kain

Poster PDF (62.1 kB)

11:15 AM

7B.4

A statistical expression for the estimation of MCS precipitation efficiency

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. N. Allen, R. Scofield, A. Gruber, and R. Kuligowski

Poster PDF (238.7 kB)

11:30 AM

7B.5

A Benchmark Simulation for Testing Moist Nonhydrostatic Numerical Model Formulations

George H. Bryan, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

Poster PDF (170.5 kB)

11:45 AM

7B.6

Regional Verification of Polar MM5 over Alaska

William Courtemanche, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH; and M. K. Walters

Poster PDF (495.7 kB)

LUNCH BREAK

Weather Briefing

8

Phenomenological Forecasting II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University

Papers:

1:30 PM

8.1

Numerical Forecasts of freezing rain: Physical processes and Model biases

Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. B. Ek and K. Keeter

Poster PDF (618.7 kB)

1:45 PM

8.2

Verification of real-time non-hydrostatic Eta model forecasts over Southern New England

Marina Tsidulko, UCAR Visiting Scientist and NOAA/National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD; and J. G. W. Kelley

http://ocean1.ncd.noaa.gov/NBLAPS/

Poster PDF (804.5 kB)

2:00 PM

8.3

Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm Assessment

Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Titan Systems Corporation, Atlantic City, NJ; and C. Fidalgo and D. Sims

Poster PDF (128.2 kB)

2:15 PM

8.4

An Analysis of the Spatial Distribution of Eta Surface Temperature Forecasts through the Gridded Forecast Editor

Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK

Poster PDF (106.1 kB)

2:30 PM

8.5

Contrasts between good and bad forecasts of warm season MCSs in 10 km Eta simulations using two convective schemes

Isidora Jankov, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

2:45 PM

8.6

Characteristics of the Nocturnal Land Breeze over the Kennedy Space Center, Florida

Jonathan L. Case, NASA Kennedy Space Flight Center and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco and D. A. Short

Poster PDF (171.2 kB)

10A

Results from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) Experiment

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Dave Rust, NOAA/NSSL; Don MacGorman, NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

1:30 PM

10A.1

Electrical Discharges from Thunderstorm Tops

Walter A. Lyons, FMA Research, Inc., Fort Collins, CO; and T. E. Nelson, V. P. Pasko, and M. A. Stanley

http://pasko.ee.psu.edu/Nature

Poster PDF (537.8 kB)

1:45 PM

10A.2

Comparison of radar-observed and WRF-modeled structures of two STEPS storms

L. Jay Miller, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. L. Weisman

2:00 PM

10A.3

Aspects of electric field profiles and total lightning in severe thunderstorms in STEPS

W. D. Rust, NOAA/NWS and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. R. MacGorman, P. R. Krehbiel, T. Hamlin, J. Harlin, W. Rison, R. Thomas, and E. C. Bruning

Poster PDF (105.9 kB)

2:15 PM

10A.4

Kinematic and microphysical evolution of the 29 June supercell during STEPS

Sarah A. Tessendorf, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins and UCAR/SOARS, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

2:30 PM

10A.5

Lightning characteristics of two storms observed during STEPS

Andrew G. Detwiler, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD; and J. H. Helsdon, D. V. Kliche, Q. Mo, and T. A. Warner

Poster PDF (314.2 kB)

2:45 PM

10A.6

June 29, 2000 STEPS Supercell Storm: Relationships Between Kinematics, Microphysics, and Lightning

Kyle C. Wiens, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Tessendorf and S. A. Rutledge

http://radarmet.atmos.colostate.edu/~kwiens/rm3/kwiens/SLS_2002.html

Poster PDF (173.4 kB)

10B

warnings, dissemination and verification

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Brian Klimowski, NOAA/NWS

Papers:

1:30 PM

10B.1

Training on severe convection

Bradford N. Grant, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

1:45 PM

10B.2

An investigation of alternative verification schema for the National Weather Service: Results of analysis of March 2001 storms in North Florida and Southeast Georgia

Dawn Hayes, Edward Waters College, Jacksonville, FL; and P. T. Welsh

2:00 PM

10B.3

Improving short-term warnings through rapid update of radar-detected severe weather features

Christopher W. Porter, CIMMS and NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (26.1 kB)

2:15 PM

10B.4

Toward better warning decision-making and verification statistics: improvements at the Wichita National Weather Service office

Peter L. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Wichita, KS

2:30 PM

10B.5

Utilization of the GFE in severe weather recognition at the Tampa Bay Area National Weather Service

Jason T. Deese, NOAA/NWSFO, Ruskin, FL; and C. H. Paxton

Poster PDF (3.3 MB)

2:45 PM

10B.6

The tornado warning process during a fast-moving low-topped event: 11 April 2001 in Iowa

Karl A. Jungbluth, NOAA/NWSFO, Johnston, IA

Poster PDF (860.4 kB)

COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSIONS

Coffee Break

Poster Session 6

Numerical Modeling of Severe Local Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P6.1

The origin of an intense vortex couplet and jet in a numerically simulated supercell

Howard B. Bluestein, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. L. Weisman

P6.2

Sensitivity of 3-D narrow cold-frontal rainband simulations to changes in the ice microphysics parameterization

Robert E. Schlesinger, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

P6.3

Numerical Simulations of Gust Front/ Microburst Collision Dynamics

Leigh Orf, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC

Poster PDF (778.3 kB)

P6.4

Numerical simulation of storm boundary anchoring in a high-CAPE, low-shear environment: Implications for the modulation of convective mode

Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson

http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~ahous/Supercell-DC/

Poster PDF (318.4 kB)

P6.5

The sensitivity of simulated storm structure and intensity to the temperature at the lifted condensation level

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and C. Cohen

P6.6

Numerical simulation of cell interaction

Brian F. Jewett, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson and B. D. Lee

http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~jewett/Apr19/SLS02/

Poster PDF (135.7 kB)

P6.7

High resolution numerical simulations of thunderstorm outflow boundaries

Bruce D. Lee, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and C. A. Finley

Poster PDF (199.3 kB)

P6.8

Numerical Investigation of the Origins of the Granite Falls, MN, Tornado

Rich Naistat, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and W. Togstad, D. Dokken, and K. Scholz

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

P6.9

Convective initiation without an instantaneous warm bubble

Lewis Grasso, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Poster Session 7

Convection Initiation

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P7.1

A comparative verification of two "cap" indices in forecasting thunderstorms

David L. Keller, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE

Poster PDF (231.9 kB)

P7.2

A simple model for convection initiation between two colliding frontal boundaries

P7.3

Rapid supercell storm and tornado development along a boundary

Kevin B. Laws, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp and J. Walters

P7.4

The 3 May 1999 Drylines: A Closer Examination

Albert E. Pietrycha, Penn State University, University Park, PA

Poster PDF (197.5 kB)

Poster Session 8

Climatological Studies of Severe Local Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P8.1

Toward a Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Systems Occurring throughout the Great lakes

Jesse Sparks, Northern Illinois University, Dekalb, IL; and M. Bentley

P8.2

The Importance of Parcel Choice and the Measure of Vertical Wind Shear in Evaluating the Convective Environment

Matthew J. Bunkers, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and B. A. Klimowski and J. W. Zeitler

Poster PDF (169.4 kB)

P8.3

The Climatology and Character of Pennsylvania Severe Weather

John J. LaCorte, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm

Poster PDF (72.6 kB)

P8.4

Precipitation efficiency aspects of flash flood producing MCSs

Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. M. Rochette

Poster PDF (187.8 kB)

P8.5

Environmental Conditions Associated with Cool Season Strong and Violent Tornadoes in the Middle Mississippi Valley

Mark F. Britt, NOAA/NWS, St. Charles, MO; and F. H. Glass

P8.6

Damaging nor'westers in Bangladesh

Richard E. Peterson, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. M. Dewan

P8.7

Creation of a Severe Thunderstorm Event Web Page for Research and Training Purposes at the National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center

Charlie A. Crisp, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. R. Janish, G. W. Carbin, and A. Just

Poster PDF (71.3 kB)

P8.8

A Climatology of Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the United States

Walker S. Ashley, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and P. G. Dixon, J. D. Durkee, E. J. Powell, S. L. Trotter, T. L. Mote, and A. J. Grundstein

Poster PDF (371.9 kB)

Poster Session 9

Warning, Dissemination and Verification

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P9.1

Warning Decision Making Processes at WFO Jackson, MS During the Tornado Outbreak of 24 November 2001

Alan Gerard, NOAA/NWS, Jackson, MS; and C. Entremont and A. Robinson-Cook

Poster PDF (147.7 kB)

P9.2

Impact of Small Tornadoes on National Weather Service Operations 29 July, 2001

John J. Kwiatkowski, NOAA/NWS, Indianapolis, IN; and D. L. Sherrieb

Poster PDF (510.7 kB)

P9.3

Wireless Storm Spotter and Marine Reporting System (WSSMRS)—A National Weather Service Jacksonville/University of North Florida Research Project

Fred R. Johnson, NOAA/NWSFO, Jacksonville, FL; and P. T. Welsh and J. D. Lambert

Poster PDF (98.7 kB)

P9.4

Warning Decision Making Issues during the 24 November 2001 Tornado Outbreak

John T. Bradshaw, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and J. D. DeBlock, P. A. Hart, M. A. Linhares, K. J. Pence, and J. A. Westland

P9.5

Dramatically improving warning services—one office's experience

Stephen S. Parker, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and H. Waldron

Poster PDF (42.2 kB)

P9.6

Applying a Mixed Tornado/Flooding Event to the New National Weather Service Training Environment

Nezette N. Rydell, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and J. D. Ward

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/wx/nov152001/nov15.htm

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

P9.7

A Case Study of the Fort Worth and Arlington Tornadic Supercells of 28 March 2000

Jason K. Jordan, Texas Tech University and NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and A. R. Moller and M. Vescio

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/jjordan/research/ftwtor/

Poster PDF (505.9 kB)

9

WRF Model Development

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Morris L. Weisman, NCAR

Papers:

3:30 PM

9.1

A semi-Lagrangian non-hydrostatic model employing a hybrid vertical coordinate

R. James Purser, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. K. Kar, S. Gopalakrishnan, and T. Fujita

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

3:45 PM

9.2

Testing and Verification of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and W. Wang

Poster PDF (150.7 kB)

4:00 PM

9.3

WRF model evaluation at the SPC and NSSL

John S. Kain, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. E. Baldwin and S. J. Weiss

Poster PDF (150.4 kB)

4:15 PM

9.4

Verification of IHOP model runs of MM5 and WRF with diabatic initialization

Paul Schultz, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (479.1 kB)

4:30 PM

9.5

The effects of subgrid model mixing and numerical filtering in simulations of mesoscale convective systems

Tetsuya Takemi, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Rotunno

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/individual/skamarock/takemi.pdf

Poster PDF (206.8 kB)

4:45 PM

9.6

Preliminary results from 4 km explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang and J. B. Klemp

5:00 PM

9.7

A Nonhydrostatic Vertical-Slice Model in a Hybrid Sigma-Theta Coordinate

Sajal K. Kar, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser

Poster PDF (205.8 kB)

5:15 PM

9.8

Screen-height Observations Assimilated in an Evolving 1-D PBL with an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder

http://

Poster PDF (167.0 kB)

5:30 PM

9.9

A case study comparison of 10-km RUCWRF and RUC model forecasts from the IHOP experiment

Stanley Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. L. Lee, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, and B. L. Shaw

Poster PDF (225.4 kB)

5:45 PM

9.10

Preliminary comparisons of tropical cyclone simulations with the GFDL and WRF Models

David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and R. E. Tuleya

Poster PDF (164.8 kB)

11A

Lightning Studies

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Bill Beasley, University of Oklahoma; Matt Gilmore, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

4:30 PM

11A.1

Lightning relative to precipitation and tornadoes in a supercell storm during MEaPRS

Don MacGorman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. Rust, O. van der Velde, M. Askelson, P. Krehbiel, R. Thomas, W. Rison, T. Hamlin, and J. Harlin

4:45 PM

11A.2

Preliminary results from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL; and J. Bailey, S. J. Goodman, R. Blakeslee, J. Hall, D. E. Buechler, and T. Bradshaw

5:00 PM

11A.3

A relationship between a surface theta-e ridge and dominant lightning polarity

Nettie R. Lake, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and D. R. MacGorman

Poster PDF (63.0 kB)

5:15 PM

11A.4

Development of predictors for cloud-to-ground lightning activity using atmospheric stability indices

Kenneth C. Venzke, Air Force Institute of Technology, Keesler AFB, MS; and R. P. Lowther

5:30 PM

11A.5

Tornado signatures and precursor activity from 3-D lightning mapping observations

T. Hamlin, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and J. D. Harlin

Poster PDF (585.1 kB)

5:45 PM

11A.6

Lightning Meteorology II: An advanced course on forecasting with lightning data

Bard A. Zajac, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Weaver, D. E. Bikos, and D. T. Lindsey

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/visit

Poster PDF (220.6 kB)

11B

Climatological Studies of Severe Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Joseph Schaefer, NOAA/NSSL/SPC

Papers:

4:30 PM

11B.1

The month-to-month consistency in the occurrence rates of tornados and severe thunderstorms

Joseph T. Schaefer, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. Just

Poster PDF (172.4 kB)

4:45 PM

11B.2

An examination of severe thunderstorm wind report climatology: 1970–1999

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. A. Hart and P. R. Janish

Poster PDF (213.2 kB)

5:00 PM

11B.3

Severe weather associated with warm season precipitation episodes

Diana L. Bartels, NOAA/NSSL, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Carbone, D. A. Ahijevich, L. J. Miller, and J. D. Tuttle

Poster PDF (252.0 kB)

5:15 PM

11B.4

A climatology of environmental parameters that influence severe storm intensity and morphology

U. S. Nair, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul Jr. and R. M. Welch

Poster PDF (700.8 kB)

5:30 PM

11B.5

A Severe Weather Climatology for the NWS WFO New Orleans-Baton Rouge County Warning Area (CWA)

Suzanne Van Cooten, NDBC, Stennis Space Center, MS

Poster PDF (355.8 kB)

5:45 PM

11B.6

Analysis of Tornado Counts with Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Models

Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. K. Wikle

Poster PDF (24.7 kB)

Fiesta

Sessions end for the day

THUR 15 AUG

10

Data Assimilation I

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Mary Alice Rennick, FNMOC

Papers:

8:00 AM

10.1

Implementation of a new grid-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in the NCEP Eta model

Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Jin, Y. Lin, T. Black, E. Rogers, and G. DiMego

10.2

Experiments of high-density data in the NCEP Eta Data Assimilation System: NEXRAD radial velocity and satellite radiance data

8:15 AM

10.3

Background Error Covariance Functions for Radar Wind Analysis

Qin Xu, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Gong

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

10.4

Ensemble data assimilation as an SDVR technique

8:30 AM

10.5

Rapid-scan single-Doppler velocity retrieval of a thunderstorm outflow

Alan Shapiro, CAPS/University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and P. Robinson and J. Wurman

8:45 AM

10.6

Characterising the Spatial Structure of Observation Errors in Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors for Data Assimilation

Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Saarinen, J. N. Thépaut, and G. Kelly

Poster PDF (261.1 kB)

9:00 AM

10.7

Impacts of Initial Analyses and Observations on the Convective-Scale Data Assimilation with an Ensemble-Kalman Filter

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Snyder and J. Sun

Poster PDF (337.3 kB)

9:15 AM

10.8

High-resolution RUC forecasts for PACJET: Real-time NWS guidance and retrospective data impact tests

Steve Weygandt, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, C. S. Velden, J. E. Burks, and L. B. Nance

Poster PDF (246.2 kB)

9:30 AM

10.2a

Impact of Polar Cloud Track Winds from MODIS on ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts (formerly Paper number 1.6)

Niels Bormann, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and J. N. Thépaut, J. Key, D. Santek, and C. S. Velden

Poster PDF (854.9 kB)

9:45 AM

10.4a

The Role of Subsynoptic Processes in Synoptic-scale Extratropical Cyclone Development (Formerly Paper 7a.4)

Kenneth E. Parsons, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ; and P. J. Smith

12

tornadogenesis

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Bob Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL; Cathy Finley, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley

Papers:

8:00 AM

12.1

Tornadogenesis and tornado-vortex structure in a supercell

Howard B. Bluestein, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. C. Weiss, A. L. Pazmany, W. C. Lee, and M. Bell

8:15 AM

12.2

The occurrence of rear-flank reflectivity maxima in the supercells of 2 June 1995

Erik N. Rasmussen, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. S. Gilmore, J. M. Straka, and R. P. Davies-Jones

8:30 AM

12.3

Observations of the formation of low-level rotation: The 5 June 2001 Sumner County, Kansas storm

David C. Dowell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. P. Richardson and J. Wurman

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

8:45 AM

12.4

The Role of the Preexisting Boundry on tornadogenesis in the 27 May 1997 Central Texas Event

Adam L. Houston, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson

http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~ahous/Supercell-DC/

Poster PDF (370.5 kB)

9:00 AM

12.5

Two Modes of Tornadogenesis In Storm A on 3 May 1999

Yvette P. Richardson, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. Wurman

9:15 AM

12.6

The structure and evolution of hook echoes during tornadogenesis as revealed by high resolution radar data

Michael A. Magsig, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess, D. C. Dowell, Y. P. Richardson, and J. M. Wurman

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

9:30 AM

12.7

Three-dimensional stability analyses of tornado-like vortices with secondary circulations

David S. Nolan, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (99.1 kB)

9:45 AM

12.8

Near-surface intensification during unsteady tornado evolution

D. C. Lewellen, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV; and W. S. Lewellen

http://eiger.mae.wvu.edu

Poster PDF (194.6 kB)

COFFEE BREAK

11

Ensembles

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO

Papers:

10:30 AM

11.1

An Examination of Regional Ensemble Forecasting Techniques during three Winter Storms

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (81.2 kB)

10:45 AM

11.2

Flow Dependent Background Error Covariance and Mesoscale Predictability Estimation through Ensemble Forecasting

Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and J. Ham and A. Aksoy

Poster PDF (671.0 kB)

11:00 AM

11.3

Effects of nesting frequency and lateral boundary perturbations on the dispersion of limited-area ensemble forecasts

Paul Nutter, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Stensrud and M. Xue

Poster PDF (404.4 kB)

11:15 AM

11.4

Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction of Tropical and Mid-latitude Cyclones

Mohan K. Ramamurthy, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett, B. Cui, and H. Liu

Poster PDF (330.5 kB)

11:30 AM

11.5

Results of using the PSU shallow convection scheme in an ensemble mode: Effects on mass flux profiles and thermodynamic tendencies

Ricardo C. Muñoz, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and N. L. Seaman, D. R. Stauffer, and A. Deng

Poster PDF (201.3 kB)

11:45 AM

11.6

Using adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities to characterize forecast uncertainty

Michael C. Morgan, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. T. Kleist and G. A. Postel

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (518.7 kB)

13

Tornadic Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Lou Wicker, NOAA/NSSL; David Dowell, NCAR

Papers:

10:30 AM

13.1

Characteristics of Circulations associated with the 11 February 1999 Tornadic Event over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region

Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWSFO, St. Charles, MO; and G. K. Schmocker

10:45 AM

13.2

The Structure of a tornadic bow echo in Idaho

James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

11:00 AM

13.3

Tornadogenesis within quasi-linear convective systems. Part I: Radar and storm damage analysis of the 29 June 1998 derecho

Justin M. Arnott, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and N. T. Atkins

Poster PDF (505.6 kB)

11:15 AM

13.4

Tornadogenesis within Quasi-Linear Convective Systems. Part II: Preliminary WRF Simulation Results of the 29 June 1998 Derecho

Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and J. M. Arnott

Poster PDF (327.7 kB)

11:30 AM

13.5

The 29 June 1998 Derecho Across Central Illinois: Issues Associated with Non-Descending Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Vortex Evolution

Bradley D. Ketcham, NOAA/NWS, Lincoln, IL; and R. W. Przybylinski

11:45 AM

13.6

Doppler radar observations of squall line tornadogenesis near the KDVN WSR-88D

Ray Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA

Poster PDF (458.2 kB)

LUNCH BREAK

Weather Briefing

14

Supercell and Tornadic Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Howie Bluestein, University of Oklahoma; Yvette Richardson, Penn State University

Papers:

1:30 PM

14.1

Linear and nonlinear propagation of supercell storms

Robert Davies-Jones, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

1:45 PM

14.2

Polarimetric analysis of a 3 May 1999 tornado

Alexander Ryzhkov, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Burgess, D. Zrnic, T. Smith, and S. Giangrande

Poster PDF (208.4 kB)

14.3

The 11 April 2001 Oklahoma tornado outbreak

2:00 PM

14.4

The 24 October 2001 tornado outbreak

John Taylor, NOAA/NWSFO, Syracuse, IN; and S. L. Lashley, R. E. Smith, P. B. Murphy, and J. A. Logsdon

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/radardata.html

Poster PDF (110.2 kB)

2:15 PM

14.5

The Washington DC tornado of 24 September 2001: pre-storm environment and radar perspectives

Steven M. Zubrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Sterling, VA; and B. M. Watson

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/Historic_Events/924tornadofiles/sep24.htm

Poster PDF (197.9 kB)

2:30 PM

14.6

Multiple Vortex Phenomena in Thunderstorms and Tornadoes: Three Scales of Multiple Vortices

Shelley L. Potts, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and E. M. Agee

Poster PDF (269.8 kB)

2:45 PM

14.3A

The Lamar Colorado tornadic event: A Boundary driven singificant tornadic storm in a high CAPE/low shear environment (Formerly paper P11.2)

Stephen J. Hodanish, NOAA/NWS, Pueblo, CO; and J. M. Davies

Poster PDF (563.7 kB)

12

Data Assimilation II

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

1:30 PM

12.1

A comparison between the 4D-Var and the ensemble filter techniques for radar data assimilation

A. H. Caya, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (315.9 kB)

1:45 PM

12.2

Anisotropic background error correlations in a 3D-var system

M. S. F. V. De Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, J. C. Derber, and G. DiMego

Poster PDF (336.3 kB)

2:00 PM

12.3

Cloud/hydrometeor initialization in the 20-km RUC Using radar and GOES data

Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and J. M. Brown

Poster PDF (245.2 kB)

2:15 PM

12.4

New Development of a 3dvar system for a Nonhydrostatic NWP Model

Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Brewster, F. H. Carr, and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (199.4 kB)

2:30 PM

12.5

A new version of RUC 3DVAR

Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/FSL and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin and S. S. Weygandt

Poster PDF (24.7 kB)

2:45 PM

12.6

Impact Assesment of a Doppler Wind Lidar for OSSE/NPOESS (Formerly Paper 5.6)

Michiko Masutani, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. C. Woollen, S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, G. D. Emmitt, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, J. Terry, R. Atlas, T. J. Kleespies, and H. Sun

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/osse/nwp2002/nwp15.masutani.12_6.pdf

Poster PDF (94.7 kB)

COFFEE BREAK WITH THE POSTER SESSION

Poster Session 10

Tornadogenesis

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P10.1

Tornadogenesis in a Simulated HP Supercell

Catherine A. Finley, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and W. R. Cotton and R. A. Pielke Sr.

Poster PDF (436.8 kB)

P10.2

Transonic velocities in tornadoes?

W. Steve Lewellen, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV; and J. Xia and D. C. Lewellen

http://eiger.mae.wvu.edu/tornado.html

Poster PDF (200.0 kB)

P10.3

Possible Tornadogenesis Mechanism During the 15 November 2001 South Texas Coastal Bend Event

Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

Poster PDF (813.1 kB)

P10.4

Investigating the role of the dynamic pipe effect in tornadogenesis by using a laboratory simulator

Ashley E. Tidwell, Westmoore High School, Oklahoma City, OK

P10.5

Tornado and Waterspout Genesis. A new perspective on 3D Simulation and Experimentation of Vortex

Safieddine Bouali, University of Tunis, Le Bardo, Tunisia

Poster Session 11

Tornadic Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P11.1

Using a GIS to compare the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City tornado damage path to WSR-88D signatures

Valerie K. McCoy, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. J. Stumpf

Poster PDF (550.3 kB)

P11.2

Paper has been moved to Session 14, new paper number 14.3A

P11.3

An overview of the 28–29 May 2001 severe weather outbreak over southeast Colorado

Stephen J. Hodanish, NOAA/NWSFO, Pueblo, CO

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

P11.4

The Effect of a Low-Level Boundary on the Development of the Panhandle, TX Tornadic Storm on 29 May 2001

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrollton, TX; and C. Broyles, S. Kersh, and J. Wingenroth

Poster PDF (637.3 kB)

P11.5

The 2001 Independence, Iowa tornado: Issues associated with non-supercell tornadogenesis far from the radar

Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and J. Meyer

Poster PDF (268.3 kB)

P11.6

Radar and Damage Analysis of the 27 May 2000 Tornadic Derecho Event

Nolan T. Atkins, Lyndon State College, Lyndonville, VT; and R. W. Przybylinski

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

P11.7

Radar Examination and analysis of a Bow Echo in south Carolina in the Remains of Tropical Cyclone Danny 1997

Joshua W. Scheck, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. Edwards and G. V. Rao

P11.8

Mesoscale environment factors in the D.C. area tornado event of 24 September 2001

Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS; and J. A. Hart

http://members.cox.net/jdavies1/

Poster PDF (204.9 kB)

P11.9

A case of supercell intensification along a preexisting boundary—Clay County Nebraska tornado of 22 September 2001

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS, Hastings, NE

Poster PDF (566.1 kB)

P11.10

Initial Examination of the Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Supercells on 20 September 2000: Includes the F4 Xenia Tornado

James G. Lott, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH; and J. T. DiStefano

Poster PDF (542.6 kB)

Poster Session 12

Tornado and Severe Storm Environments

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Papers:

P12.1

WSR-88D observations of non-descending tornadogenesis in proximity to a synoptic scale frontal boundary: A case study of 18 May 2000 in Northern Illinois

Casey Crosbie, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Wolf

Poster PDF (74.5 kB)

P12.2

RUC-2 Model Analysis Soundings as a Surrogate for Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards, J. A. Hart, and K. L. Elmore

Poster PDF (175.4 kB)

P12.3

An Assessment of supercell and tornado forecast parameters through RUC-2 model close proximity soundings

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Edwards and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (141.7 kB)

P12.4

Characteristics of RUC vertical wind profiles near supercells

Paul Markowski, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. Hannon, J. Frame, E. Lancaster, A. Pietrycha, R. Edwards, and R. L. Thompson

Poster PDF (326.6 kB)

P12.5

On low-level Thermodynamic parameters associated with tornadic and nontornadic supercells

Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS

http://members.cox.net/jdavies1/

Poster PDF (210.4 kB)

P12.6

Multi-scale Analysis of the 13 October 2001 Central Gulf Coast Tornado Outbreak

Dan Darbe, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and J. M. Medlin

P12.7

ELBOW 2001—studying the Relationship between Lake Breezes and Severe Weather: project overview and preliminary results

David M. L. Sills, MSC, King City, ON, Canada; and P. Taylor, P. King, W. Hocking, and I. Nichols

Poster PDF (133.1 kB)

P12.8

Low-level moisture in the Eta model: an update (formerly paper 17.6)

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and K. E. Mitchell, B. S. Ferrier, and S. J. Weiss

13

High Resolution Prediction

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

3:30 PM

13.1

The Met Office's new global and mesoscale NWP models

Glenn T. Greed, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and S. Milton, I. Culverwell, D. Cameron, and D. Li

Poster PDF (115.3 kB)

3:45 PM

13.2

High winds and high resolution at the Met Office

Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

Poster PDF (76.5 kB)

4:00 PM

13.3

Development of a nonhydrostatic model for very short-range forecasting at JMA

Tsukasa Fujita, Japan Meteorological Agency, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan; and K. Saito, Y. Yamada, J. I. Ishida, M. Narita, S. Goto, C. Muroi, T. Kato, and H. Eito

Poster PDF (42.2 kB)

4:15 PM

13.4

A High Resolution Numerical Simulation of the Landfall of Hurricane Opal (1995)

Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. Wilhelmson

http://pampa.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~romine/opal.html

Poster PDF (280.1 kB)

4:30 PM

13.5

Numerical Simulation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Allison (2001)

Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Poster PDF (23.4 kB)

4:45 PM

13.6

Uncertainty in numerical mesoscale modeling by the use of a topography defined via map projections

Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico

Poster PDF (128.9 kB)

5:00 PM

13.7

Use of the NCEP MesoEta Data in a Water Level Predicting Neural Network

Andrew R. Patrick, NOAA/NWSFO, Corpus Christi, TX; and W. G. Collins, P. E. Tissot, A. Drikitis, J. Stearns, P. R. Michaud, and D. T. Cox

Poster PDF (146.1 kB)

5:15 PM

13.8

An exploration of several techniques to try to improve warm season rainfall forecasts in the Upper Midwest

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and B. R. Temeyer

5:30 PM

13.9

Wind and thermodynamic retrievals in a supercell thunderstorm: Ensemble Kalman filter results

David Dowell, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang, L. Wicker, C. Snyder, B. Skamarock, and A. Crook

Poster PDF (874.0 kB)

15

Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes and Low-Latitude Severe Storms

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Eugene W. McCaul, USRA

Papers:

15.1

A Single-Doppler Radar Analysis of the Outer Rainband Mesocyclones Associated with Hurricane Opal of 4 October 1995

4:31 PM

15.2

Tornado Distribution Associated with Hurricane Floyd 1999

Albert E. Pietrycha, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. D. Hannon

Poster PDF (197.9 kB)

4:45 PM

15.3

Using High-Resolution Diagnostics to Facilitate the Short-Term Threat Assessment of Tornadoes during Tropical Storm Gabrielle

David W. Sharp, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt, P. F. Blottman, J. L. Case, and D. S. Kelly

5:00 PM

15.4

Mid-level dry intrusions as a factor in tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling tropical cyclones from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

Lon Curtis, KWTX-TV, Waco, TX

http://www.vvm.com/~curtis/AMSTCTor.html

Poster PDF (402.4 kB)

5:15 PM

15.5

Numerical Investigation of the Role of Mid-Level Dryness on Tropical Mini-supercell Behavior

Glen Romine, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. B. Wilhelmson

http://pampa.ncsa.uiuc.edu/~romine/opal.html

Poster PDF (180.8 kB)

Sessions end for the day

Evening Video/Slide Presentation

FRI 16 AUG

14

Model Improvements

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Papers:

8:00 AM

14.1

The 20-km RUC in operations

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, B. E. Schwartz, T. L. Smith, T. G. Smirnova, D. Kim, G. A. Grell, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, J. M. Brown, and G. S. Manikin

Poster PDF (282.1 kB)

8:15 AM

14.2

Wind and Temperature Retrieval From TOMS Data for Weather Analysis and Prediction

Simon Low-Nam, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and X. Zou

8:30 AM

14.3

A Decade + of the Eta Performance, including that beyond Two Days: Any Lessons for the Road Ahead?

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, K. Brill, H. Y. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

8:45 AM

14.4

Adaptation of the Canadian Updateable Model Output System to forecasting marine winds on the great lakes Great Lakes

Syd Peel, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and L. J. Wilson and M. Vallee

Poster PDF (243.4 kB)

9:00 AM

14.5

Parameter Retrieval in a Land-surface Model

Diandong Ren, University of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and J. Gao

Poster PDF (68.0 kB)

9:15 AM

14.6

PERFORMANCE AND ENHANCEMENTS OF THE NCAR/ATEC MESOSCALE FDDA AND FORECASTING SYSTEM

Yubao Liu, NCAR/RAP, Boulder, CO; and S. Low-Nam, R. S. Sheu, L. Carson, C. Davis, T. Warner, J. Bowers, M. Xu, H. M. Hsu, and D. Rife

Poster PDF (79.9 kB)

14.7

Evaluation of Eta Model Seasonal Forecasts over South America

9:30 AM

14.8

Domain of validity of some computational mesoscale models

Marco A. Nuñez, Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana Iztapalapa, Mexico City, Mexico

Poster PDF (163.0 kB)

16

Tornado and Severe Storms Environments

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizer: Ed Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ.

Papers:

8:00 AM

16.1

Investigating derecho and supercell proximity soundings

Jeffry S. Evans, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. A. Doswell III

Poster PDF (195.4 kB)

8:15 AM

16.2

A Database of Proximity Soundings for Significant Severe Thunderstorms, 1957–1993

Harold E. Brooks, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. P. Craven

Poster PDF (439.8 kB)

8:30 AM

16.3

Baseline Climatology of Sounding Derived Parameters Associated with Deep, Moist Convection

Jeffrey P. Craven, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks and J. A. Hart

Poster PDF (128.0 kB)

8:45 AM

16.4

Hodograph variability within analytically modeled baroclinic waves

Peter C. Banacos, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

Poster PDF (349.1 kB)

9:00 AM

16.5

Significant tornadoes in environments with relatively weak shear

Jonathan M. Davies, Private Meteorologist, Wichita, KS

http://members.cox.net/jdavies1/

Poster PDF (169.6 kB)

9:15 AM

16.6

A Preliminary Investigation of Supercell Longevity

Matthew J. Bunkers, NOAA/NWSFO, Rapid City, SD; and J. S. Johnson, J. M. Grzywacz, L. J. Czepyha, and B. A. Klimowski

Poster PDF (160.5 kB)

16.7

The Hoisington Kansas Tornado, 2001: Examining a Possible Meso-scale Tropopause Fold in Near Proximity to a Tornadic Suercell

9:30 AM

16.8

An examination of the contrasting evolution of two southeast United States cool-season severe weather episodes

Alicia C. Wasula, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, R. Schneider, and R. H. Johns

Poster PDF (1.3 MB)

9:45 AM

16.7a

Synoptic and mesoscale patterns associated with violent tornadoes across separate geographic regions of the United States: part I—surface characteristics (Formerly Paper JP1.4)

Chris Broyles, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and N. Dipasquale and R. Wynne

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/html/Violenttornadoes.html

Poster PDF (3.7 MB)

COFFEE BREAK

15

Techniques to Maximize the Value of Model Output

Sponsor: 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting/15th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction

Organizer: Edward L. Bensman, Air Force Weather Agency

Papers:

10:30 AM

15.1

Local PoP forecast Equations for Philadelphia, PA

Mark P. DeLisi, NOAA/NWSFO, Mount Holly, NJ; and A. M. Cope

Poster PDF (252.7 kB)

10:45 AM

15.2

Combining objective and subjective information to improve forecast evaluation

Michael P. Kay, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (70.2 kB)

11:00 AM

15.3

Eta-based MOS probability of preciptation amount guidance for the continental United States

Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

11:15 AM

15.4

GFE-Based Temperature Verification-One Approach

Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID

Poster PDF (77.1 kB)

11:30 AM

15.5

How Traditional NWS Verification Encourages "Hedging", and a Possible Remedy

Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID

Poster PDF (48.5 kB)

11:45 AM

15.6

Forecasting Applications of Synoptic Observation for Some Selected Parameters at Addis Ababa. Part I : Frequency of Weather Events against Wind, Dew-point Temperature and Pressure

Yitaktu Tesfatsion, National Meteorological Services Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

17

mesoscale processes and severe convection

Sponsor: 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms

Organizers: Paul Markowski, Penn State University; Erik Rassmussen, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

Papers:

10:30 AM

17.1

Mesoscale analysis of the dryline on 29 May 2001 with attendant severe convection

Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and G. D. Skwira, C. B. Chang, A. L. Doggett IV, and R. E. Peterson

10:45 AM

17.2

Numerical simulation of a dryline-outflow boundary intersection

Christopher C. Weiss, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein

11:00 AM

17.3

The impact of land-atmosphere interactions on the Benson, MN tornado of 11 June 2001

Daniel R. Cheresnick, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. B. Basara

11:15 AM

17.4

The Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Flash Flood Event of 4–5 October 1998

Jonathan Racy, NOAA/NSSL/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. A. Rogash

Poster PDF (213.7 kB)

11:30 AM

17.5

Soil moisture, land-atmosphere interaction, and the 6–7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event

R. David Baker, Austin College, Sherman, TX; and Y. Wang, W. K. Tao, and P. Wetzel

Poster PDF (111.6 kB)

11:45 AM

17.6

Paper has been moved to Poster Session P12, new paper number P12.8

Conference Ends

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