Wednesday, 14 August 2002: 5:45 PM
Analysis of Tornado Counts with Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Models
Christopher J. Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and C. K. Wikle
Poster PDF
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Climatological analysis of tornado reports is complicated by reporting
errors, non-gaussian nature of count data and rare events, and the
presence of non-stationary spatial and temporal correlation. Analyses
to date have estimated sample statistics such as sample mean frequency
or sample correlation between tornado counts and climate indices.
Hypothesis tests are often applied to these estimates of sample
statistics. An underlying assumption of this approach is statistical
indepence of observations. Although some studies have accounted for
the complicating factors mentioned above (e.g.,preprocessing the data to
remove spatial and temporal correlation),typically such factors have
not been formally included in the underlying statistical model used for
inferential decisions.
We have taken an alternative approach in which a statistical model is
constructed so that the aforementioned characteristics of tornado
reports are explicitly accommodated in the model structure. In
particular, a hierarchical Bayesian framework is considered, in which
the various complicated structures are considered in a series of
conditional models, formally linked by basic probability rules. This
formalism allows one to evaluate characteristics of the
spatio-temporal variability of an underlying (unobservable) tornado
count process given the noisy observations. In addition, one can consider
the effects of exogenous processes on this tornado count process. For example, preliminary analysis shows that the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) is potentially more important for modeling
variability in tornado counts than ENSO.
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