Wednesday, 14 August 2002: 4:45 PM
Preliminary results from 4 km explicit convective forecasts using the WRF model
The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is being specifically
designed to improve predictability of phenomena that can can be
represented with horizontal grid resolutions of 1 to 10 km. Convective
weather remains a real challenge for such a modeling system, and is
recognized as a major contributor to poor forecasts of warm season
QPF. In order to test the current capabilities and limitations of the
WRF model for such scenarios, 4 km resolution simulations are being run,
and will include much of the upcomming warm season, centered on the
western high plains, congruent with IHOP research domain. 4 km grid
resolutions are nominally considered sufficient to represent mesoscale
convective systems, and was used successfully with the WRF model to
forecast a large bow-echo system that moved through South Dakota,
Wisconsin and northern Illinois on 11-12 June 2001. These tests document
the capabilities and limitations of WRF to forecast the timing,
location, and mode of major convective activity, as well as reproduce
appropriate vertical profiles of temperature, moisture and winds in the
environments of the convection. Running such a test in conjunction with
IHOP enhances the ability to verify specific forecasts, and test
proposed improvements to model physics. Our experiences will be compared
to those using other convective-resolving forecast models, which will
help clarify directions for further research and model development
Supplementary URL: