TAF Verification: Performance Measurement or Quality Improvement?

For decades, aviation aerodrome forecast (TAF) verification systems have been used to provide a quantitative representation of forecast quality. These numbers were often confusing and found, given the nature of weather patterns, to be highly variable in both space and time. Although verification scores can provide an indication of forecast quality, efforts to use such results as an impetus for TAF improvement were limited. In order for TAF verification scores to be used in a quality improvement mode, several conditions must be met. First, aviation meteorologists must have a rudimentary understanding of the objective scoring system. Second, near real-time statistics must be available to operational aviation forecasters, in order to assess past performance and consider cases where substantial improvement could be made.

A PC-based verification system has been developed with two distinct components. An overall database allows for generation of statistical measures such as False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Frequency of Hits (FOH) and Probability of Detection (POD). A training database provides forecasters the opportunity to write several TAFs for the same situation and study the differences in verification scores. Both components of the verification system will be described and demonstrated. Finally, it will be suggested that, through effective use, within an operational setting, a simple verification system can be effectively in improving TAF quality.