Session: Forecasting and Evaluation/Verification (Parallel with Sessions 6 & 7) (Orlando Meeting)

Thursday, 14 September 2000: 8:00 AM-5:49 PM

Host: Ninth Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology

Organizers:

Dewey E. Harms, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; David R. Rodenhuis, NOAA/NWS/Aviation Weather Center, Kansas City, MO and Mark T. Surmeier, Headquarters Air Force Weather Agency, Mail code DNX, Offutt AFB, NE

Papers:

8:00 AM

5.1

Forecast Aids to Lessen the Impact of Marine Stratus on San Francisco International Airport

F. Wesley Wilson, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA; and D. A. Clark

8:20 AM

5.2

Preliminary evaluation of a First Guess ceiling forecast at Space Shuttle landing sites

Timothy D. Oram, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, Houston, TX

8:40 AM

5.3

Steps to Improve Ceiling and Visibility Forecasts for Aviation

James J. Gurka, NOAA/NESDIS, Suitland, MD; and F. R. Mosher

9:00 AM

5.4

A Fuzzy Logic System for the Analysis and Prediction of Cloud Ceiling and Visibility

Kevin R. Petty, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. B. Carmichael, G. M. Wiener, M. A. Petty, and M. N. Limber

9:20 AM

5.5

Evaluation of Ceiling and Visibility Prediction: Preliminary Results over California using the Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

Daniel A. Geiszler, SAIC, Monterey, CA; and J. Cook, P. Tag, W. Thompson, R. Bankert, and J. Schmidt

9:40 AM

5.6

AWIPS era real time TAF, FWC, and LAMP ceiling and visibility verification program at WFO Tulsa

James M. Frederick, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and S. A. Amburn

10:00 AM

5.7

TAF Verification: Performance Measurement or Quality Improvement?

Kent A. Johnson, MSC, Kelowna, BC, Canada; and U. Gramann

10:20 AM

5.8

An observations-based, statistical system for short-term probabilistic forecasts of aviation-sensitive weather parameters

Joby L. Hilliker, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

5.9

A new method for estimating the lifetime of atmospheric features as a function of their vertical scale and its advantage over coherence analysis

10:41 AM

5.10

Performance Support Delivery System for Use in Aviation and Range Weather Forecasting. (Fomerly paper 5.17)

Roger C. Whiton, SAIC, O'Fallon, IL; and L. K. Starlin, R. G. Borchers, and A. A. Guiffrida

11:00 AM

5.11

Short term forecasting of snowbands using Doppler radar observations and a cloud-scale model

Mei Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, N. A. Crook, and R. Rasmussen

11:20 AM

5.12

FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast Algorithm Assessment

K. E. Theriault, MIT, Lexington, MA; and M. M. Wolfson, B. E. Forman, R. G. Hallowell, M. P. Moore, and R. J. Johnson Jr.

11:40 AM

5.13

FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast benefits analysis

Jim S. Sunderlin, MCR Federal, McLean, VA; and G. Paull

12:00 PM

5.14

Improvement of Terminal Area Forecasts

C. Pan, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and I. Jirak, D. Tucker, D. A. Braaten, P. A. Browning, and D. Beusterien

12:20 PM

5.15

Wind and Temperature Verification Statistics for the Operational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport

J. J. Charney, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Kaplan, Y. L. Lin, K. T. Waight, K. D. Pfeiffer, J. A. Thurman, and C. M. Hill

12:40 PM

5.16

An evaluation of using lightning data to improve aviation oceanic convective forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico

Alan Nierow, FAA, Washington, DC; and R. C. Showalter

1:00 PM

5.17

Verification of icing and turbulence forecasts: why some verification statistics can't be computed using PIREPs (Fomerly paper 5.10)

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Young

1:20 PM

5.18

A multiple scale precipitation tracking and forecast package

Janelle M. Janish, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

1:40 PM

5.19

Convective intercomparison exercise: Baseline statistical results

Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, C. Mueller, and J. E. Hart

2:00 PM

5.20

Natural and triggered lightning forecasts for space shuttle landings

Tim Garner, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and T. D. Oram

2:20 PM

5.21

Development of an acoustic ray-trace model, high-resolution boundary-layer measurements, and meso-G scale forecasts driven by off-range, blast-noise management requirements

Charles A. Clough, U.S Army, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD; and J. K. Luers and E. J. Hall

2:40 PM

5.22

The 20-km version of the Rapid Update Cycle

Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, G. A. Grell, K. J. Brundage, D. Devenyi, D. Kim, T. G. Smirnova, T. L. Smith, G. A. Manikin, B. E. Schwartz, and S. S. Weygandt

3:00 PM

5.23

EMC support for aviation forecasting efforts using the Eta model

Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. L. Black and G. DiMego

3:20 PM

5.24

A sensitivity and benchmark study of RAMS in the Eastern Range Dispersion Assessment System

Jonathan L. Case, NASA, Kennedy Space Center, and ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and J. Manobianco, A. V. Dianic, D. E. Harms, and P. N. Rosati

3:40 PM

5.6A

Coffee Break

4:00 PM