FAA Terminal Convective Weather Forecast benefits analysis

Thunderstorms are a major cause of disruptions to air traffic at airports causing inefficiencies for both airlines and passengers. Improvements in convective weather forecasting provide traffic managers with the ability to better anticipate thunderstorm impacts on airspace availability, thus, reducing ground delays, airborne delays, diversions, and cancellations.

The Terminal Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF) product has been developed by MIT Lincoln Laboratory as part of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. TCWF is intended to improve convective weather forecasts, resulting in efficiency benefits. Currently, the product is being demonstrated at airports in Orlando, Dallas Fort-Worth, Memphis and New York. MCR has conducted interviews with Tracon and ARTCC Traffic Management Unit (TMU) personnel for both the Orlando and Dallas Fort-Worth airports. These discussions address specific experiences using TCWF during thunderstorm activity and provide the basis for assessing benefits.

Careful understanding and structuring of these efficiency benefits is necessary to develop an accurate framework for quantifying the savings achieved by using the product. A thorough analysis of validated inputs from multiple experts provides credible estimates of the benefits. It is imperative that the estimated savings be compared to historical flight disruption data associated with thunderstorms to provide a context for proper interpretation.

This report will describe the primary scenarios in which TCWF has assisted traffic managers in addressing thunderstorm impacts, benefit estimates based on specific efficiencies identified by the users, and a comparison of the results to historical flight disruption data.