Improvement of Terminal Area Forecasts

An effort to improve the quality of terminal area forecasts (TAFs) at the Kansas City International Airport (MCI) is undertaken by the University of Kansas and the NWS forecast office in Pleasant Hill, Missouri. In consultation with forecasters at Pleasant Hill, a list of critical weather parameters in making TAFs has been determined. A multilinear regression technique is then applied to produce 1,3,6 hour forecasts of visibility and ceiling under instrument flight rule (IFR) and low instrument flight rule (LIFR) conditions. A fuzzy logic model technique using internal functions is also being applied to the same dataset. Forecast results from these two techniques will be compared. TAFs for MCI issued by NWS forecasters have been verified for the period January 1995 through December 1999. This period represents observations exclusively from the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). Statistical measures of forecast performance from this period will be used as a benchmark for measuring the skill of the new objective TAF forecast system. The ultimate goal of this research is to improve the flight safety with the improved TAFs.