Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
    

Joint Session 1

 Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)
 Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina, Los Angeles, CA
8:30 AMJ1.1Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)  
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
8:45 AMJ1.2Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)  
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford
9:00 AMJ1.3Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods  extended abstract
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder
9:15 AMJ1.4Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP  extended abstract
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du
9:30 AMJ1.5Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use  extended abstract
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson
9:45 AMJ1.6The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS  
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza
10:00 AMCoffee Break in Poster Session Room  
10:30 AMJ1.7Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction  
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico
10:45 AMJ1.8Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?  extended abstract
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus
11:00 AMJ1.9Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations  
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond
11:15 AMJ1.10A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes  extended abstract
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop
11:30 AMJ1.11Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model  
Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
11:45 AMJ1.12Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts  extended abstract
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop
12:00 PMGrand Poster Luncheon  

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 8:30 AM-2:00 PM

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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