Joint Session 1 |
| | Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science) |
| | Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina, Los Angeles, CA
|
| 8:30 AM | J1.1 | Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom |
| 8:45 AM | J1.2 | Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford |
| 9:00 AM | J1.3 | Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods 
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder |
| 9:15 AM | J1.4 | Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du |
| 9:30 AM | J1.5 | Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson |
| 9:45 AM | J1.6 | The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza |
| 10:00 AM | | Coffee Break in Poster Session Room
|
| 10:30 AM | J1.7 | Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico |
| 10:45 AM | J1.8 | Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus |
| 11:00 AM | J1.9 | Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond |
| 11:15 AM | J1.10 | A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop |
| 11:30 AM | J1.11 | Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model
Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR |
| 11:45 AM | J1.12 | Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop |
| 12:00 PM | | Grand Poster Luncheon
|