Joint Session 1
	Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
	Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA
	2:00 PM	J1.13	Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)   Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA
	2:15 PM	J1.14	Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?   Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers
		J1.15	Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast   Dingchen Hou, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and S. R. Hanna
	2:29 PM	J1.16	Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities   Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan
	2:44 PM	J1.17	Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory   Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake
	2:59 PM	J1.18	How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth
	3:14 PM	J1.19	Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest   Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
	3:29 PM		Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall
	3:59 PM	J1.20	Ensemble canonical correlation prediction of seasonal precipitation over the United States: raising the bar for dynamical model forecasts   William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim and S. S. P. Shen
	4:14 PM	J1.21	Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM   Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet
	4:29 PM	J1.22	Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems   Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd
	4:44 PM	J1.23	The value of perfection   James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest
	4:59 PM	J1.24	The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises   Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 2:00 PM-5:14 PM

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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