The performance of these forecasts for the period 1997 through 2000 are assessed through a diagnostic verification, which involves examination of the full joint frequency distributions of the forecasts and the corresponding observations, rather than relying on a distillation of forecast performance in terms of simple scalar scores. In particular, the calibration-refinement factorization of these joint distributions will be examined graphically, through reliability diagrams. These allow determination of the degree of forecast calibration (correspondence between forecast probabilities and event relative frequencies), forecast sharpness, and any conditional (consistently over- or underconfident) or unconditional (e.g., consistently too warm) biases that may be present. Detailed analyses such as these are necessary for fully optimal use of such forecasts in decision making. In addition to overall verification results for each of the two forecast projections, results will be presented for geographic stratifications of the data.