2002 Annual

9: 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Saturday, 12 January 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


SAT 12 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

Sunday, 13 January 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


SUN 13 JAN

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

Monday, 14 January 2002

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Sessions end for the day

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


MON 14 JAN

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Welcoming Remarks

9:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Joint Session 2
Weather Derivatives & Weather Risk Management (Joint with 3rd Symposium on Environmental Applications and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Robert S. Dischel, Weather Market Observer

Papers:
  9:30 AM
The ideal meteorologist
Ravi V. Nathan, Aquila Inc., Kansas City, MO

  10:00 AM
Forecasting for profits
Frank M. Caifa, Swiss RE New Markets, New York, NY

Poster PDF (201.3 kB)
  10:30 AM
Help Wanted: Meteorologists to fix drought in precipitation contracts
Robert S. Dischel, Weather Market Observer, New York, NY

Poster PDF (101.3 kB)
  10:45 AM
Skillful seasonal degree-day forecasts and their utility in the weather derivatives market
Jeffrey A. Shorter, Weather Services International, Corp., Billerica, MA; and T. M. Crawford, R. J. Boucher, and J. P. Burbridge

Poster PDF (55.8 kB)
  11:00 AM
Can a Meteorologist Beat the Weather Market?
Lee E. Branscome, Environmental Dynamics Research, Inc., Palm Beach Gardens, FL

  11:15 AM
Weather Risk Assessment at the Dawn of Ensemble Numerical Weather Prediction
John L. Keller, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)
  11:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

9:30 AM-3:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


1
forecast evaluation
Sponsor: 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Laurence W. Wilson, Enviornment Canada

Papers:
  10:00 AM
1.2
Transformed skill scores
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. G. Bullock and B. G. Brown

Poster PDF (273.0 kB)
  10:15 AM
1.3
Additional Measures of Skill for Probabilistic Forecasts
F. Wesley Wilson, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (35.0 kB)
 
1.4
Determining the accuracy of small-scale information in forecast fields

  10:30 AM
1.5
Using Verification Techniques to Evaluate Differences Among Convective Forecasts
Jennifer Luppens Mahoney, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, J. E. Hart, and C. Fischer

Poster PDF (154.7 kB)
  10:45 AM
1.6
Improved approaches for measuring the quality of convective weather forecasts
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Mahoney, C. A. Davis, R. Bullock, and C. K. Mueller

Poster PDF (183.8 kB)
  11:00 AM
1.7
Relative economical value of CMC seasonal forecasts
Normand Gagnon, MSC, Dorval, PQ; and R. Verret

Poster PDF (55.7 kB)
  11:15 AM
1.8
Diagnostic Verification of the IRI Net Assessment Forecasts, 1997–2000
Daneil S. Wilks, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and C. M. Godfrey

  12:00 PM
A Statistical Evaluation of Mainstem Forecasting Errors for the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers
Lee W. Larson, NOAA/NWS (retired), Prairie Village, KS; and N. O. Schwein

  12:15 PM
On the verification of ensemble precipitation products
John. C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles and M. Mullusky

 
1.13
Evaluating verification procedures for ensemble precipitation predictions

  12:30 PM
Statistical comparison of forecast meteorology with observations using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System
Robert L. Buckley, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and A. H. Weber and J. H. Weber

Poster PDF (525.7 kB)
  12:45 PM
Welcoming Remarks

  1:00 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  1:30 PM
Lunch Break

  3:00 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

1:30 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Joint Session 4
Climate and Weather Services for Weather Risk Management (Joint with 3rd Symposium on Environmental Applications and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Third Symposium on Environmental Applications; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Robert Leffler, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  2:00 PM
NOAA's surface weather observing networks
Thomas R. Karl, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and W. M. Faas

  2:30 PM
United States Climate Normals for the 1971–2000 Period: Product Descriptions and Applications
Timothy W. Owen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and T. Whitehurst

Poster PDF (191.0 kB)
  2:45 PM
Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) Modernization
Andrew H. Horvitz, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. J. Leffler

 
J4.5
Paper moved to the 18th Conference on IIPS, Poster Session P1, New paper Number P1.28

  3:00 PM
Structuring climate services through stakeholder-driven assessment
Barbara J. Morehouse, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ; and G. M. Garfin, M. Vasquez Leon, H. Hartmann, T. Pagano, K. Kolivras, F. Ni, T. Finan, D. M. Liverman, A. Comrie, R. Bales, S. Sorooshian, M. K. Hughes, J. T. Overpeck, D. Austin, and D. Hadley

  3:15 PM
Benefits and Costs of Weather and Climate Services
John W. Zillman, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

  3:45 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


2
Topics in Probability and Statistics for the Atmospheric Sciences
Sponsor: 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytech Institute and State Univ.

Papers:
  3:30 PM
2.1
Randomness of Radiances from Broken Cloud Fields
G. Louis Smith, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA

Poster PDF (29.1 kB)
  3:45 PM
2.2
Spurious Relations Among Rainfall Parameters Arising from Inadequate Sampling and Fitting
A. R. Jameson, RJH Scientific, Inc., Arlington, VA; and A. B. Kostinski

Poster PDF (196.8 kB)
  4:00 PM
2.3
Temporal spectra of Earth radiation budget components
Takmeng Wong, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith

Poster PDF (361.1 kB)
  4:15 PM
2.4
Determiniation of Model Valid Prediction Period using the Backward Fokker-Planck Equation
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov and C. W. Fan

  4:30 PM
2.5
Periods and its prediction in the coming 10 years in china
Fengying Wei, Chinese Academy of Meteorology Sciences, Beijing, China

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


TUE 15 JAN

8:30 AM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 1
Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  8:45 AM
Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford

  9:00 AM
Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (226.8 kB)
  9:15 AM
Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)
  9:30 AM
Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson

Poster PDF (114.6 kB)
  9:45 AM
  10:00 AM
Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico

  10:15 AM
Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus

http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html

Poster PDF (448.2 kB)
  10:30 AM
Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond

  10:45 AM
A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)
  11:00 AM
Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model
Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  11:15 AM
Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (185.8 kB)
  11:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  12:00 PM
Grand Poster Luncheon

8:30 AM-2:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 3
Climate Variations and Forecasting (Joint with the 16th Conference Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizers: Rick Katz, NCAR; Bob Livezey, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  8:30 AM
A new significance test for empirical orthogonal functions
M. S. Santhanam, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and B. Aditya and G. A. Kumar

Poster PDF (834.4 kB)
  8:45 AM
The correlation structure of some simple indices of global climate variability and change
David J. Karoly, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and K. Braganza

Poster PDF (16.2 kB)
  9:00 AM
Cloudiness trends in Canada
Ewa J. Milewska, MSC, Toronto, ON, Canada

Poster PDF (112.7 kB)
  9:15 AM
A linear approach to atmospheric predictability on the medium and extended range
Matthew Newman, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. R. Winkler

  9:45 AM
A hazard model for tornado occurrence in the United States
Cathryn L. Meyer, Boston College, Boston, MA; and H. E. Brooks and M. P. Kay

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  10:00 AM
A new perspective on the climatology of tornadoes in the United States
Sara L. Bruening, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and M. P. Kay and H. E. Brooks

Poster PDF (533.7 kB)
  10:15 AM
Determining Fog Type in the Los Angeles Basin Using Historic Surface Observation Data
Jeffrey A. Baars, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and M. Witiw, A. Al-Habash, and J. Ramaprasad

Poster PDF (62.5 kB)
  10:30 AM
Fog in the Los Angeles Basin: Influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Michael R. Witiw, Terabeam, Redmond, WA; and J. A. Baars and J. Ramaprasad

  11:00 AM
Predictability of anomalous storm tracks
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland

  11:15 AM
Seasonal forecasting of strong winds over Europe
J. P. Palutikof, Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; and T. Holt and T. J. Osborn

Poster PDF (218.5 kB)
  11:30 AM
A Space-Time Model for Seasonal Hurricane Prediction
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and X. Niu and J. B. Elsner

Poster PDF (96.8 kB)
  11:45 AM
Predictive United States' hurricane climate
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. H. Bossak

http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/HTML/Research/papers/predclim/predclim.html

Poster PDF (80.1 kB)
  12:00 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  12:30 PM
Grand Poster Luncheon

2:00 PM-5:14 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 1
Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ.

Papers:
  2:00 PM
Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)
Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  2:15 PM
Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

 
J1.15
Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast

  2:30 PM
Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities
Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  2:45 PM
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory
Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake

Poster PDF (700.2 kB)
  3:00 PM
How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (808.5 kB)
  3:15 PM
Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest
Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

  3:45 PM
Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM
Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet

Poster PDF (254.4 kB)
  4:00 PM
Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems
Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd

  4:15 PM
The value of perfection
James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest

  4:30 PM
The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette

Poster PDF (304.8 kB)
  4:45 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 5
Statistical Downscaling (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations)
Sponsors: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of Califonia

Papers:
  4:00 PM
Sensitivity of Climate Change Estimates Using Statistical Downscaling to the Method and Predictors
Radan Huth, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic

  4:15 PM
Modeling stochastic structure of daily temperature as downscaling of GCM fields
Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. G. Craig

  4:30 PM
A spatial time series framework for modeling daily precipitation at regional scales
Phaedon C. Kyriakidis, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA; and N. L. Miller and J. Kim

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)
  5:00 PM
North Atlantic Ocean Wave Climate Change Scenarios
Xiaolan L. Wang, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and V. R. Swail

  5:15 PM
Possible climate change impacts on ozone in the Great Lakes Region: Some implications for respiratory illness
Peter J. Sousounis, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. P. J. Scott and M. L. Wilson

Poster PDF (265.6 kB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Sessions end for the day

Wednesday, 16 January 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


WED 16 JAN

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium (Continued)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Joint Poster Session 1
Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ.

Papers:
 
The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings
Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell

Poster PDF (85.4 kB)
 
10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (109.7 kB)
 
Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States
Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer

Poster PDF (18.8 kB)
 
Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?
Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez

Poster PDF (209.6 kB)
 
Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees
Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord

Poster PDF (191.3 kB)
 
data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events
George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM

 
A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem
Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller

 
Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model
Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

 
A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index
Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg

 
Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures
Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan Jr.

 
Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

 
Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

 
Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts
Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (525.8 kB)
 
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor

http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/AHPS/juniata_river.htm

Poster PDF (234.0 kB)
 
Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX
James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

 
A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes
Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

 
JP1.23
Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

 
Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg

Poster PDF (118.5 kB)
 
Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors
Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (171.6 kB)
 
Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting
John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles

 
Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction
Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

 
Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

 
Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (182.0 kB)

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Sessions end for the day

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Reception (Cash Bar)

Thursday, 17 January 2002

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


THUR 17 JAN

8:30 AM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


3
weather forecasting
Sponsor: 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  8:30 AM
3.1
The new NWS MOS development and implementation systems
Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle

  8:45 AM
3.2
The new AVN/MRF MOS development and model changes: a volatile mix?
Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle and K. L. Carroll

Poster PDF (169.1 kB)
  9:00 AM
3.3
Progress in the development of the Canadian updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Vallée

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  9:15 AM
3.4
TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada—Part One: Introduction and development of the very short-range module
Pierre Bourgouin, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Montpetit, R. Verret, and L. J. Wilson

Poster PDF (55.7 kB)
  9:30 AM
3.5
TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada Part two—Development of the short-range forecast module and results
Jacques Montpetit, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. J. Wilson, and R. Verret

Poster PDF (436.5 kB)
  9:45 AM
3.6
Ensemble, dynamic MOS
Peter P. Neilley, Weather Services International, Inc., Billerica, MA; and W. Myers and G. S. Young

Poster PDF (85.7 kB)
  10:00 AM
3.7
Combining forecasts for superior prediction
Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (205.0 kB)
  10:30 AM
3.9
Surface wind gust statistics at the Savannah River Site
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and M. J. Parker and J. H. Weber

  10:45 AM
Probabilistic early warning of cloud-to-ground lightning at an airport
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins

  11:15 AM
The value of cloud lightning in probabilistic thunderstorm warning
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins

  11:30 AM
Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type
John V. Cortinas Jr., University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. F. Brill and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (55.1 kB)
  11:45 AM
Topographic and synoptic influences on cold season severe weather events in California
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA; and G. Martin, S. LaDochy, and J. N. Brown

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)
  12:00 PM
The application of synoptic stratification to the statistical forecasting of rainfall and surface wind
Gregory J. Connor, Bureau of Meteorology, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

Poster PDF (39.5 kB)
  12:15 PM
An Empirically Developed Forecast Model for the Surface Layer Stability Transition Period
Gail-Tirrell Vaucher, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

Poster PDF (71.3 kB)
  12:30 PM
Using Current-Generation Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Systems for Real-Time Ozone Forecasting
Christian Hogrefe, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. T. Rao and K. L. Demerjian

Poster PDF (264.2 kB)
  12:45 PM
A study of predictive models for forecasting hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Pingili and R. L. Miller

  1:00 PM
Analyzing the relationship between solar flux and hurricane strength to forecast hurricane development
Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc, A Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo, B. J. Zuzolo, and G. N. Greene

  1:15 PM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  1:45 PM
Lunch Break

  3:15 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

3:15 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Conference Ends

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Closing Event Begins

5:00 PM-6:15 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

6:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Event Presentation

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


9
Tropical Party